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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Moreirense — Tondela

Predictions Moreirense vs Tondela January 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Moreirense
Moreirense
Home · last 5 W L W L D
Kick-off
Sun 11 Jan · 18:00
1:0
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas · Moreira de Cónegos Referee Sergio Guelho, Portugal
Home Win · MOR
49%
Best 2.07
Draw
28%
Best 3.20
Away Win · TON
23%
Best 3.79
Model pick
Under 2.5
@ 1.68
Fair odds
1.72
book 1.68 · no edge vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 58%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 49.3%
Odds 2.43
Show model details
Implied probability 41.2%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 28.1%
Odds 3.22
Show model details
Implied probability 31.1%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 22.6%
Odds 3.28
Show model details
Implied probability 30.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 58%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 42%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.9%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.2%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.2%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds 1.23
Show model details
Implied probability 81.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 22.1%
Odds 4.17
Show model details
Implied probability 24%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 10.9%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 52.5%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 47.6%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 49.3%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 22.6%
Odds 2.31
Show model details
Implied probability 43.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 50.7%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 77.4%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.