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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › AVS — Nacional

AVS vs Nacional 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
AVS
AVS
Home · last 5 D D W W D
Kick-off
Sun 21 Dec · 15:30
2:2
Full-time
Nacional
Nacional
W W L L W Away · last 5
Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves · Vila das Aves Referee Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 50% · book 2.40 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 62% · book 1.72 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.88 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.21 – 1.30
Δ −0.09
Possession
37% – 63%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.10 — +10.1% better than the market.

Nacional arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves. AVS’s defensive struggles and poor home momentum contrast with Nacional’s more balanced attack and defense, hinting at an away advantage. The match may lean towards a controlled tempo given moderate goal expectations, favoring Nacional’s ability to capitalize on set-pieces and maintain pressure.

  • Significant quality gap favors away side
  • Home defensive vulnerabilities
  • Moderate pace with tactical discipline expected

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.10 ✗ Lost
AI 36% Implied 32% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

AVS 3-4-3 · NAC 4-2-3-1
AVS · 3-4-3 4-2-3-1 · NAC 93 Simão 42 Castro 35 Semedo 3 Vitor 2 Spencer 15 Grau 8 Lima 24 Afonso 11 Akinsola ⚽ 7 Tomané ⚽ 14 Perea 1 Kaique 2 Aurélio 33 Gonçalves 38 Vitor ⚽ 24 Vallier 6 Dias 8 Baeza 99 Ruan 28 Liziero 11 Bóia 9 Ramírez ⚽
Subs used · AVS
68' Barbosa ↑ · Perea ↓
68' Rivas ↑ · Kiki ↓
80' Assuncao ↑ · Lima ↓
80' Santos ↑ · Grau ↓
84' Escobar ↑ · Tomane ↓
Subs used · NAC
46' Gomes ↑ · Dias ↓
46' Labidi ↑ · Vallier ↓
83' Nourani ↑ · Ruan ↓
83' Joao ↑ · Baeza ↓
90+2' Sousa ↑ · Liziero ↓

Statistics

AVS 2 – 2 NAC
37%
Possession (%)
63%
1.21
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.30
15
Total Shots
19
3
Shots on Target
6
7
Shots off Target
10
9
Shots Inside Box
12
9
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
2
8
Fouls
11
70%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
1
Yellow Cards
0
5
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

16 · 2 – 2
Tomane
1–0
⚽
35'
T. Akinsola
Assist · D. Spencer · 2–0
⚽
43'
Half-time · 2 – 0
46'
⇄
Jose Gomes ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
C. Labidi ↓ · L. Vallier ↑
Substitution 2
50'
⚽
Ze Vitor
Assist · C. Labidi · 2–1
Tomané
Yellow Card
▮
57'
61'
⚽
J. Ramirez
2–2
R. Barbosa ↓ · O. Perea ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
L. Rivas ↓ · Kiki ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
68'
Rúben Semedo
Red Card
▮
73'
G. Assuncao ↓ · Pedro Lima ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
80'
A. Santos ↓ · J. Grau ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
83'
⇄
M. Nourani ↓ · Pablo Ruan ↑
Substitution 3
83'
⇄
L. Joao ↓ · M. Baeza ↑
Substitution 4
J. Escobar ↓ · Tomane ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
90+2'
⇄
A. Sousa ↓ · Liziero ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

AVS and Nacional drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 83% of their passes. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 15, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: Tomane (35'), T. Akinsola (43'), Ze Vitor (50'), J. Ramirez (61'). Rúben Semedo was sent off in the 73' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.47 units (Brier 0.261).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.40 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.72 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.88 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.28 — 38% Cashed +1.28 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.96 — 44% Cashed +0.96 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.70 — 50% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.60 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.44 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.10 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.36 — 78% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.40 — 65% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.00 — 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.27 — 81% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 — 88% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Draw 3.36 — 27% Cashed +2.36 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.33 — 19% Cashed +3.33 Cashed
Home Win 3.40 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +0.47u +3% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
AVS – NAC @ 3.10
+10.1%
Edge
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