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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Estrela — Moreirense

Predictions by Market: Estrela vs Moreirense

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Estrela
Estrela
Home · last 5 L L L D D
Kick-off
Sat 20 Dec · 20:30
0:0
Full-time
Moreirense
Moreirense
W L W L D Away · last 5
Estádio José Gomes · Amadora Referee Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · EST
32%
Best 2.81
Draw
28%
Best 2.90
Away Win · MOR
40%
Best 2.70
Value pick
Over 2.5
@ 2.33
Fair odds
2.04
book 2.33 · +14.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 49% · EV +14.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 2.5 is more likely (51%), but Over 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win
Probability 31.9%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 40.1%
Odds 3.15
Show model details
Implied probability 31.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 28%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 49%
Odds 2.33
Show model details
Implied probability 42.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 51%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 73.6%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 27.9%
Odds 4.35
Show model details
Implied probability 23%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 26.4%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.4%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 72.1%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 8.6%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No
Probability 48%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 40.1%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 31.9%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 68.1%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 59.9%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
EST – MOR @ 2.33
+14.1%
Edge
Forecast →