Estoril vs SC Braga 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.74 — +8.6% better than the market.

SC Braga arrives with clear quality superiority and strong recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Estoril's home edge is limited, and their defensive struggles against Braga's potent attack could be decisive. The match hints at a moderately open pace, with Braga's offensive pressure likely to test Estoril's compact block.

Braga's attacking edge vs Estoril's defense
Home side's inconsistent form and limited home advantage
Potential for Braga to control tempo and create chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.74 ✗ Lost

AI 62% Implied 57% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 4-1-4-1 · BRA 3-4-2-1

EST · 4-1-4-1 3-4-2-1 · BRA

99 Guitane

Subs used · EST

62'

Ferro ↑ ·

Guitane ↓

71'

Lominadze ↑ ·

Jandro ↓

71'

Parente ↑ ·

Amaral ↓

78'

Tsoungui ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

78'

Garcia ↑ ·

Lacximicant ↓

Subs used · BRA

61'

Dorgeles ↑ ·

Carvalho ↓

61'

Horta ↑ ·

Rodrigues ↓

73'

Grillitsch ↑ ·

Gorby ↓

73'

Navarro ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

83'

Lelo ↑ ·

Moutinho ↓

Statistics

EST 1 – 0 BRA

32%

Possession (%)

68%

2.13

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.19

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

74%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 1 – 0

Jandro Orellana

Yellow Card

▮

41'

A. Lacximicant

Assist · P. Amaral · 1–0

⚽

43'

Half-time · 1 – 0

61'

⇄

M. Dorgeles ↓ · Vitor Carvalho ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

R. Horta ↓ · D. Rodrigues ↑

Substitution 2

62'

▮

Pau Víctor

Yellow Card

Ferro ↓ · R. Guitane ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

62'

N. Lominadze ↓ · Jandro ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

T. Parente ↓ · P. Amaral ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

73'

⇄

F. Grillitsch ↓ · Gorby ↑

Substitution 3

73'

⇄

F. Navarro ↓ · G. Martinez ↑

Substitution 4

Ricard Sánchez

Yellow Card

▮

78'

A. Tsoungui ↓ · R. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

F. Garcia ↓ · A. Lacximicant ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

78'

Tiago Parente

Yellow Card

▮

82'

83'

⇄

L. Lelo ↓ · J. Moutinho ↑

Substitution 5

Fabrício Garcia

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

▮

Florian Grillitsch

Yellow Card

Antef Tsoungui

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Estoril beat SC Braga 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 86% of their passes. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Lacximicant (43').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +4.55 units (Brier 0.356).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.74	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.89	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.83	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.08	—	45%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
BTTS No	2.05	—	46%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.20	—	38%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.20	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.21	—	86%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	—	67%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.36	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.26	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.96	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.00	—	22%	Cashed	+3.00	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	5.04	—	14%	Cashed	+4.04	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.71	—	14%	Cashed	+2.71	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+4.55u	+27% ROI

Estoril vs SC Braga 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled