Match Guimaraes vs Sporting CP December 23, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.20 — +14.8% better than the market.

Sporting CP arrive as clear favorites with a significant quality edge and a potent attack that challenges Guimaraes' defense. Despite Guimaraes' solid home form and resilience, Sporting's offensive firepower and recent momentum suggest they can control the game tempo. Expect a lively encounter with chances at both ends, as both sides have shown goal-scoring ability recently.

Sporting's pressing and attacking threat likely to test Guimaraes' compact block.
Home side's form and home edge may keep the match competitive.
Moderate pace expected, with a good chance for goals given recent trends.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 2.20 ✓ Cashed

AI 52% Implied 45% +1.20u

+120%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GUI 4-4-2 · SPO 4-4-2

GUI · 4-4-2 4-4-2 · SPO

19 Camara

Subs used · GUI

46'

Arcanjo ↑ ·

Camara ↓

46'

Sousa ↑ ·

Mitrovic ↓

67'

Oliveira ↑ ·

Samu ↓

80'

Blanco ↑ ·

Saviolo ↓

85'

Rocha ↑ ·

Nogueira ↓

Subs used · SPO

77'

Morita ↑ ·

Simoes ↓

84'

Santos ↑ ·

Araujo ↓

84'

Blopa ↑ ·

Ioannidis ↓

90+3'

Reis ↑ ·

Fresneda ↓

90+3'

Goncalves ↑ ·

Trincao ↓

📊 Statistics

GUI 1 – 4 SPO

43%

Possession (%)

57%

0.73

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.58

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

24 · 1 – 4

32'

⚽

Trincao

0–1

42'

⚽

F. Ioannidis

Assist · R. Mangas · 0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

T. Arcanjo ↓ · O. Camara ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

D. Sousa ↓ · M. Mitrovic ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

T. Arcanjo

Assist · D. Sousa · 1–2

⚽

50'

58'

▮

Maximiliano Araújo

Yellow Card

João Mendes

Yellow Card

▮

62'

63'

⚽

J. Castillo

Own goal · 1–3

N. Oliveira ↓ · Samu ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

67'

76'

▮

Eduardo Quaresma

Yellow Card

77'

⇄

H. Morita ↓ · J. Simoes ↑

Substitution 1

79'

⚽

M. Araujo

1–4

F. Blanco ↓ · N. Saviolo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

Fabio Blanco

Yellow Card

▮

84'

⇄

Alisson Santos ↓ · M. Araujo ↑

Substitution 2

84'

⇄

S. Blopa ↓ · F. Ioannidis ↑

Substitution 3

R. Rocha ↓ · G. Nogueira ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

Nélson Oliveira

Red Card

▮

87'

▮

Salvador Blopa

Yellow Card

90'

▮

Morten Hjulmand

Yellow Card

90'

▮

Iván Fresneda

Yellow Card

90+3'

⇄

Matheus Reis ↓ · I. Fresneda ↑

Substitution 4

90+3'

⇄

F. Goncalves ↓ · Trincao ↑

Substitution 5

Rodrigo Abascal

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Sporting CP won 4–1 away at Guimaraes. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.58 to 0.73. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Trincao (32'), F. Ioannidis (42'), T. Arcanjo (50'), J. Castillo (63'), M. Araujo (79'). Nélson Oliveira was sent off in the 87' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.58 units (Brier 0.114).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.93	—	60%	Cashed	+0.93	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.20	—	52%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
BTTS No	1.75	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.98	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.44	—	71%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.25	—	38%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.30	—	81%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.11	—	92%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	3.03	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.13	—	71%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	94%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	4.73	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.36	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.80	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	8.70	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.50	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	5.90	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.58u	−21% ROI