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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Guimaraes — Sporting CP

Guimaraes vs Sporting CP 1:4: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Tue 23 Dec · 20:45
1:4
Full-time
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
D D W W W Away · last 5
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques · Guimarães Referee Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.93 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 52% · book 2.20 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 48% · book 1.75 ✗
Total goals
5
1 · 4
xG (open play)
0.73 – 2.58
Δ −1.85
Possession
43% – 57%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.20 — +14.8% better than the market.

Sporting CP arrive as clear favorites with a significant quality edge and a potent attack that challenges Guimaraes' defense. Despite Guimaraes' solid home form and resilience, Sporting's offensive firepower and recent momentum suggest they can control the game tempo. Expect a lively encounter with chances at both ends, as both sides have shown goal-scoring ability recently.

  • Sporting's pressing and attacking threat likely to test Guimaraes' compact block.
  • Home side's form and home edge may keep the match competitive.
  • Moderate pace expected, with a good chance for goals given recent trends.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 2.20 ✓ Cashed
AI 52% Implied 45% +1.20u
+120%
ROI on stake

Lineups

GUI 4-4-2 · SPO 4-4-2
GUI · 4-4-2 4-4-2 · SPO 25 Castillo 2 Maga 28 Balieiro 26 Abascal 13 Mendes 20 Samu 6 Mitrović 30 Nogueira 48 Saviolo 90 Ndoye 19 Camara 1 Silva 22 Fresneda 72 Quaresma 25 Inácio 91 Mangas 17 Trincão ⚽ 42 Hjulmand 52 Simões 20 Araújo ⚽ 89 Ioannidis ⚽ 97 Suárez
Subs used · GUI
46' Arcanjo ↑ · Camara ↓
46' Sousa ↑ · Mitrovic ↓
67' Oliveira ↑ · Samu ↓
80' Blanco ↑ · Saviolo ↓
85' Rocha ↑ · Nogueira ↓
Subs used · SPO
77' Morita ↑ · Simoes ↓
84' Santos ↑ · Araujo ↓
84' Blopa ↑ · Ioannidis ↓
90+3' Reis ↑ · Fresneda ↓
90+3' Goncalves ↑ · Trincao ↓

Statistics

GUI 1 – 4 SPO
43%
Possession (%)
57%
0.73
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.58
17
Total Shots
16
5
Shots on Target
7
8
Shots off Target
5
7
Shots Inside Box
11
2
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
1
21
Fouls
14
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
3
Yellow Cards
5
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

24 · 1 – 4
32'
⚽
Trincao
0–1
42'
⚽
F. Ioannidis
Assist · R. Mangas · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
T. Arcanjo ↓ · O. Camara ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
D. Sousa ↓ · M. Mitrovic ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
T. Arcanjo
Assist · D. Sousa · 1–2
⚽
50'
58'
▮
Maximiliano Araújo
Yellow Card
João Mendes
Yellow Card
▮
62'
63'
⚽
J. Castillo
Own goal · 1–3
N. Oliveira ↓ · Samu ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
67'
76'
▮
Eduardo Quaresma
Yellow Card
77'
⇄
H. Morita ↓ · J. Simoes ↑
Substitution 1
79'
⚽
M. Araujo
1–4
F. Blanco ↓ · N. Saviolo ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
Fabio Blanco
Yellow Card
▮
84'
84'
⇄
Alisson Santos ↓ · M. Araujo ↑
Substitution 2
84'
⇄
S. Blopa ↓ · F. Ioannidis ↑
Substitution 3
R. Rocha ↓ · G. Nogueira ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
Nélson Oliveira
Red Card
▮
87'
87'
▮
Salvador Blopa
Yellow Card
90'
▮
Morten Hjulmand
Yellow Card
90'
▮
Iván Fresneda
Yellow Card
90+3'
⇄
Matheus Reis ↓ · I. Fresneda ↑
Substitution 4
90+3'
⇄
F. Goncalves ↓ · Trincao ↑
Substitution 5
Rodrigo Abascal
Yellow Card
▮
90+6'
Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Sporting CP won 4–1 away at Guimaraes. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.58 to 0.73. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Trincao (32'), F. Ioannidis (42'), T. Arcanjo (50'), J. Castillo (63'), M. Araujo (79'). Nélson Oliveira was sent off in the 87' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.58 units (Brier 0.114).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.93 — 60% Cashed +0.93 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.20 — 52% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
BTTS No 1.75 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.98 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 1.44 — 71% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.25 — 38% Cashed +2.25 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.30 — 81% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.11 — 92% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 3.03 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.13 — 71% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 — 94% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Draw 4.73 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.36 — 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.80 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 8.70 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.50 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 5.90 — 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.58u −21% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
GUI – SPO @ 2.20
+14.8%
Edge
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