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Home Portugal Primeira Liga Arouca — Alverca

Predictions Arouca vs Alverca December 14, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 14 Dec · 20:30
1:0
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L W L D L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
Home Win · ARO
25%
Best 3.00
Draw
28%
Best 3.10
Away Win · ALV
48%
Best 2.45
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 1.91
Fair odds
1.70
book 1.91 · +12.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 59% · EV +12.5%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 47.6%
Odds 2.53
Show model details
Implied probability 39.5%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win
Probability 25%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 27.5%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 64.7%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality High
Over 2.5
Probability 35.3%
Odds 2.27
Show model details
Implied probability 44.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 38.4%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 13.5%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 61.6%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 82.8%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 86.5%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 17.2%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 58.9%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality High
BTTS Yes
Probability 41.1%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 47.6%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 25%
Odds 2.14
Show model details
Implied probability 46.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 75%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 52.5%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
ARO – ALV @ 1.91
+12.5%
Edge
Forecast →