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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Arouca — Alverca

Predictions by Market: Arouca vs Alverca

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 14 Dec · 20:30
1:0
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L W L D L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Aruca Referee David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ARO
25%
Best 3.00
Draw
28%
Best 3.10
Away Win · ALV
48%
Best 2.45
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 8.50
Fair odds
7.42
book 8.50 · +14.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 13% · EV +14.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (87%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 47.6%
Odds 2.53
Show model details
Implied probability 39.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win
Probability 25%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 27.5%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 64.7%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 35.3%
Odds 2.27
Show model details
Implied probability 44.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 38.4%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 13.5%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 61.6%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 82.8%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 86.5%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 17.2%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 58.9%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality High
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 41.1%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 47.6%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 25%
Odds 2.14
Show model details
Implied probability 46.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 75%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 52.5%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
ARO – ALV @ 8.50
+14.6%
Edge
Forecast →