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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Nacional — Tondela

Nacional vs Tondela 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Nacional
Nacional
Home · last 5 W W L L W
Kick-off
Mon 15 Dec · 17:30
3:1
Full-time
Tondela
Tondela
L D W W L Away · last 5
Referee Ricardo Baixinho, Portugal
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 50% · book 2.40 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 1.96 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.76 ✗
Total goals
4
3 · 1
xG (open play)
2.35 – 3.28
Δ −0.93
Possession
44% – 56%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.25 — +7.1% better than the market.

Nacional hosts Tondela in a Primeira Liga clash where home edge in defense stands out. Nacional's solid defensive numbers could frustrate Tondela's attack, which has shown some promise but faces a tough away challenge. Both sides have struggled for consistent form recently, but Nacional's home momentum and defensive discipline may keep this match tight.

  • Home defensive strength vs away offensive pressure
  • Recent form favors Tondela slightly but is inconsistent
  • Moderate pace expected with a cautious approach

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.25 ✗ Lost
AI 33% Implied 31% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NAC 4-3-3 · TON 4-2-3-1
NAC · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · TON 1 Kaique 88 Brito 34 Santos 38 Vitor ⚽ 24 Vallier 8 Baeza 6 Dias 28 Liziero 7 Witi 9 Ramírez ⚽ 11 Bóia ⚽ 31 Fontes 48 Manso 4 Marques 20 Medina 60 Maviram ⚽ 32 Rodríguez 15 Sithole 7 Maranhão 79 Félix 17 Cavaleiro 29 Siebatcheu
Subs used · NAC
24' Aurelio ↑ · Baeza ↓
61' Labidi ↑ · Dias ↓
61' Ruan ↑ · Witi ↓
90+2' Sousa ↑ · Liziero ↓
Subs used · TON
46' Ceitil ↑ · Marques ↓
71' Tavares ↑ · Maviram ↓
71' Rodrigues ↑ · Rodriguez ↓
79' Yarlen ↑ · Cavaleiro ↓
82' Hodge ↑ · Felix ↓

Statistics

NAC 3 – 1 TON
44%
Possession (%)
56%
2.35
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
3.28
8
Total Shots
21
4
Shots on Target
5
3
Shots off Target
8
6
Shots Inside Box
14
3
Corner Kicks
10
1
Offsides
3
11
Fouls
17
71%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
5
Yellow Cards
6
4
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

26 · 3 – 1
20'
▮
Christian Marques
Yellow Card
Deivison Souza Brito
Red Card
▮
22'
J. Aurelio ↓ · M. Baeza ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
24'
Witi
Yellow Card
▮
35'
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
⇄
A. Ceitil ↓ · C. Marques ↑
Substitution 1
49'
⚽
E. Maviram
Assist · Pedro Maranhao · 0–1
Léo Santos
Yellow Card
▮
54'
54'
▮
Jordan Siebatcheu
Yellow Card
60'
▮
Emmanuel Maviram
Yellow Card
C. Labidi ↓ · Matheus Dias ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
Pablo Ruan ↓ · Witi ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
61'
62'
▮
Juan Rodríguez
Yellow Card
66'
▮
Hugo Félix
Yellow Card
Ze Vitor
1–1
⚽
68'
71'
⇄
H. Tavares ↓ · E. Maviram ↑
Substitution 2
71'
⇄
A. Rodrigues ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 3
79'
⇄
Yarlen ↓ · I. Cavaleiro ↑
Substitution 4
82'
⇄
J. Hodge ↓ · H. Felix ↑
Substitution 5
89'
▮
Afonso Rodrigues
Yellow Card
João Aurélio
Yellow Card
▮
90'
Paulinho Boia
Assist · A. Sousa · 2–1
⚽
90'
J. Ramirez (P)
Penalty · 3–1
⚽
90'
A. Sousa ↓ · Liziero ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+2'
André Sousa
Yellow Card
▮
90+11'
Paulinho Bóia
Yellow Card
▮
90+11'
90+13'
▮
Brayan Medina
Red Card
Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Nacional beat Tondela 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 79% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.28 to 2.35. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 8, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 11 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: E. Maviram (49'), Ze Vitor (68'), Paulinho Boia (90'), J. Ramirez (90'). Deivison Souza Brito was sent off in the 22' minute. Brayan Medina was sent off in the 90+13' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.89 units (Brier 0.220).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 2.40 — 50% Cashed +1.40 Cashed
BTTS No 1.96 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.76 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.16 — 41% Cashed +1.16 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.89 — 47% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.70 — 50% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.62 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.28 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.38 — 77% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.25 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.28 — 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.09 — 89% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.39 — 67% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Draw 3.35 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.10 — 21% Cashed +3.10 Cashed
Away Win 3.30 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.89u −5% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAC – TON @ 3.25
+7.1%
Edge
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