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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Moreirense — Benfica

Predictions by Market: Moreirense vs Benfica

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Moreirense
Moreirense
Home · last 5 W L W L D
Kick-off
Sun 14 Dec · 18:00
0:4
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W W D D W Away · last 5
Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas · Guimarães Referee Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MOR
8%
Best 8.10
Draw
20%
Best 4.55
Away Win · BEN
73%
Best 1.39
Value pick
BTTS Yes
@ 2.28
Fair odds
2.04
book 2.28 · +11.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 49% · EV +11.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS No is more likely (51%), but BTTS Yes is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Top pick
Probability 72.6%
Odds 1.43
Show model details
Implied probability 69.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 19.8%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win
Probability 7.6%
Odds 9.75
Show model details
Implied probability 10.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 54.2%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 45.8%
Odds 2.03
Show model details
Implied probability 49.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 32.6%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.2%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 67.5%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 22.3%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 6.8%
Odds 12.00
Show model details
Implied probability 8.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 49.1%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 51%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Top pick
Probability 72.6%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 7.6%
Odds 6.80
Show model details
Implied probability 14.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 92.4%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 27.4%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
MOR – BEN @ 2.28
+11.8%
Edge
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