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Home › England › Premier League › Manchester City — Newcastle

Predictions by Market: Manchester City vs Newcastle

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 20:00
2:1
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
L W D W L Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Thomas Bramall, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MCI
70%
Best 1.50
Draw
19%
Best 4.78
Away Win · NEW
11%
Best 5.73
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 7.00
Fair odds
6.43
book 7.00 · +8.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 16% · EV +8.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (84%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 69.8%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 18.9%
Odds 5.33
Show model details
Implied probability 18.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 11.4%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 57.1%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 42.9%
Odds 2.13
Show model details
Implied probability 47%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 15.6%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.8%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 4.2%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 84.5%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 40.1%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.9%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 69.8%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 11.4%
Odds 4.35
Show model details
Implied probability 23%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 88.6%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 30.2%
Odds 2.81
Show model details
Implied probability 35.6%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MCI – NEW @ 7.00
+8.9%
Edge
Forecast →