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Home England Premier League Manchester City — Newcastle

Predictions Manchester City vs Newcastle February 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sat 21 Feb · 20:00
2:1
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
L W D W L Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Thomas Bramall, England
Home Win · MCI
70%
Best 1.50
Draw
19%
Best 4.78
Away Win · NEW
11%
Best 5.73
Value pick
Under 3.5
@ 1.84
Fair odds
1.75
book 1.84 · +5.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 57% · EV +5.0%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 69.8%
Odds 1.51
Show model details
Implied probability 66.2%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 18.9%
Odds 5.33
Show model details
Implied probability 18.8%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 11.4%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 57.1%
Odds 1.84
Show model details
Implied probability 54.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 42.9%
Odds 2.13
Show model details
Implied probability 47%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 64.6%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.6%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.8%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.2%
Odds 23.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.5%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.1%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.9%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 69.8%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 11.4%
Odds 4.35
Show model details
Implied probability 23%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 88.6%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 30.2%
Odds 2.81
Show model details
Implied probability 35.6%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.