Casa Pia vs Alverca 0:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.57 — +9.3% better than the market.

Alverca enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Casa Pia’s defensive solidity at home could keep things tight, but Alverca’s slightly stronger attack versus Casa Pia’s defense hints at some goal threat. The match pace looks moderate, favoring a tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair.

Alverca’s form momentum contrasts Casa Pia’s struggles.
Defensive resilience from Casa Pia may limit chances.
Moderate tempo likely to keep the game balanced.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.57 ✓ Cashed

AI 70% Implied 64% +0.57u

+57%

ROI on stake

Lineups

CAS 3-4-3 · ALV 3-4-3

CAS · 3-4-3 3-4-3 · ALV

7 Nsona

Subs used · CAS

45+7'

Batista ↑ ·

Cassiano ↓

62'

Rocha Livramento ↑ ·

Nsona ↓

62'

Benaissa-Yahia ↑ ·

Conte ↓

62'

Nhaga ↑ ·

Brito ↓

80'

Morais ↑ ·

Rocha ↓

Subs used · ALV

62'

Martinez ↑ ·

Meupiyou ↓

62'

Marezi ↑ ·

Nuozzi ↓

81'

Figueiredo ↑ ·

Abdulai ↓

82'

Gui ↑ ·

Lima ↓

90+7'

James ↑ ·

Lincoln ↓

Statistics

CAS 0 – 2 ALV

52%

Possession (%)

48%

0.17

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.41

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

21 · 0 – 2

Cassiano

Yellow Card

▮

43'

José Fonte

Yellow Card

▮

45+3'

Patrick Sequeira

Red Card

▮

45+3'

Half-time · 0 – 0

50'

▮

Bastien Meupiyou

Yellow Card

R. Batista ↓ · Cassiano ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45+7'

André Geraldes

Yellow Card

▮

45+8'

D. Rocha Livramento ↓ · K. Nsona ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

F. Benaissa-Yahia ↓ · A. Conte ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

62'

R. Nhaga ↓ · R. Brito ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

62'

⇄

J. Martinez ↓ · B. Meupiyou ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

Marezi ↓ · C. Nuozzi ↑

Substitution 2

Gaizka Larrazabal

Yellow Card

▮

72'

76'

⚽

Lincoln

Assist · Sandro Lima · 0–1

T. Morais ↓ · Kaique Rocha ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

81'

⇄

Figueiredo ↓ · S. Abdulai ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

D. Gui ↓ · Sandro Lima ↑

Substitution 4

90'

⚽

Marezi

Assist · N. Touaizi · 0–2

90+1'

▮

Davy Gui

Yellow Card

90+4'

▮

Alexsandro Amorim

Yellow Card

90+6'

▮

Marko Milovanović

Yellow Card

90+7'

⇄

I. James ↓ · Lincoln ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Alverca won 2–0 away at Casa Pia. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.41 to 0.17. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 10 shots to 5, 5 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Lincoln (76'), Marezi (90'). Patrick Sequeira was sent off in the 45+3' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.87 units (Brier 0.142).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.87	—	57%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.65	—	64%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.15	—	41%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.40	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.60	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.79	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.57	—	70%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Away Win	3.10	—	41%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.90	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.41	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.12	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.45	—	62%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.24	—	82%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	87%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.50	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.87u	−17% ROI

Casa Pia vs Alverca 0:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled