Tondela vs Guimaraes 0:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.42 — +7.7% better than the market.

Guimaraes arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Tondela's struggles at the back, while Guimaraes' attack should find opportunities against a home side that concedes too often. The home team’s slight pressing edge may help contain damage, but Guimaraes' consistency and tactical discipline likely tilt the balance.

Guimaraes' defensive strength vs Tondela's attack
Better away form and overall quality gap
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.42 ✓ Cashed

AI 76% Implied 70% +0.42u

+42%

ROI on stake

Lineups

TON 4-2-3-1 · GUI 4-2-3-1

TON · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · GUI

79 Felix

Subs used · TON

61'

Yarlen ↑ ·

Tavares ↓

80'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Maranhao ↓

80'

Manso ↑ ·

Bebeto ↓

85'

Siebatcheu ↑ ·

Cavaleiro ↓

85'

Cicero ↑ ·

Sithole ↓

Subs used · GUI

68'

Nogueira ↑ ·

Mitrovic ↓

80'

Lebedenko ↑ ·

I. Mendes ↓

81'

Nogueira ↑ ·

Samu ↓

81'

Saviolo ↑ ·

Arcanjo ↓

90+5'

Nobrega ↑ ·

Camara ↓

Statistics

TON 0 – 1 GUI

50%

Possession (%)

50%

1.05

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.27

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 0 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

56'

▮

Oumar Camara

Yellow Card

Yarlen ↓ · H. Tavares ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

61'

Brayan Medina

Yellow Card

▮

62'

68'

⇄

M. Nogueira ↓ · M. Mitrovic ↑

Substitution 1

Y. Rodriguez ↓ · Pedro Maranhao ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

80'

T. Manso ↓ · Bebeto ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

⇄

O. Lebedenko ↓ · J. I. Mendes ↑

Substitution 2

81'

⇄

G. Nogueira ↓ · Samu ↑

Substitution 3

81'

⇄

N. Saviolo ↓ · T. Arcanjo ↑

Substitution 4

J. Siebatcheu ↓ · I. Cavaleiro ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

Cicero ↓ · S. Sithole ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

90'

⚽

O. Camara (P)

Penalty · 0–1

Bernardo Fontes

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

Tiago Manso

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

90+5'

⇄

M. Nobrega ↓ · O. Camara ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Guimaraes won 1–0 away at Tondela. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 11, 4 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: O. Camara (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.24 units (Brier 0.162).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.50	—	48%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
BTTS No	1.91	—	55%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.71	—	60%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.26	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.77	—	48%	Cashed	+0.77	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.19	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.42	—	76%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.10	—	34%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.42	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.57	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.10	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.25	—	80%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.10	—	88%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	3.32	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.20	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.24u	−13% ROI

Tondela vs Guimaraes 0:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled