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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Arouca — Famalicao

Arouca vs Famalicao 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Arouca
Arouca
Home · last 5 W L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 14:30
1:1
Full-time
Famalicao
Famalicao
D W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Aruca Referee Luís Godinho, Portugal
Hit
AH Home +1
AH Home +1
AI 88% · book 1.33 ✓
Hit
Over 1.5
Over 1.5
AI 75% · book 1.38 ✓
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 27% · book 4.00 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
0.66 – 2.26
Δ −1.60
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
3 / 6
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 4.00 — +8.0% better than the market.

Arouca vs Famalicao — betting preview

Famalicao travel with the sturdier defensive shape and a slightly cleaner recent trend, while Arouca’s back line has been leaky at home. The visitors should control more of the chance quality even if possession swings are modest. Game state matters: an early away goal can lift totals; a longer stalemate still favors Famalicao’s resilience.

Prices make the away side with protection appealing. Goal lines lean modestly over given Arouca’s defensive variance.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 4.00 ✗ Lost
AI 27% Implied 25% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ARO 4-2-3-1 · FAM 4-2-3-1
ARO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · FAM 1 Valido 28 Esgaio 5 Popović 3 Fontán 16 Solà 21 Fukui 8 Simão 19 Trezza ⚽ 10 Gozálbez 7 Djouahra 17 Barbero 25 Carević 17 Pinheiro 3 Realpe 16 Haas ⚽ 5 Soares 6 Looi 15 Mamageishvili 23 Dias 20 Sá 7 Sorriso 12 Elisor
Subs used · ARO
55' Jansonas ↑ · Barbero ↓
71' Puche ↑ · Simao ↓
71' van Ee ↑ · Gozalbez ↓
83' Mansilla ↑ · Djouahra ↓
83' Dante ↑ · Sola ↓
Subs used · FAM
67' Joujou ↑ · Sorriso ↓
67' Santos ↑ · Mamageishvili ↓
80' Abubakar ↑ · Elisor ↓
87' Rochinha ↑ · Dias ↓

Statistics

ARO 1 – 1 FAM
46%
Possession (%)
54%
0.66
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.26
7
Total Shots
13
3
Shots on Target
4
2
Shots off Target
4
5
Shots Inside Box
11
4
Corner Kicks
10
2
Offsides
4
22
Fouls
12
77%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
5
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

18 · 1 – 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
R. Jansonas ↓ · I. Barbero ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
55'
A. Trezza
1–0
⚽
58'
61'
▮
Gil Dias
Yellow Card
Jose Fontán
Yellow Card
▮
65'
67'
⇄
A. Joujou ↓ · Sorriso ↑
Substitution 1
67'
⇄
P. Santos ↓ · O. Mamageishvili ↑
Substitution 2
Taichi Fukui
Yellow Card
▮
69'
Puche ↓ · D. Simao ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
71'
E. van Ee ↓ · P. Gozalbez ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
71'
Miguel Puche
Yellow Card
▮
79'
80'
⇄
U. Abubakar ↓ · S. Elisor ↑
Substitution 3
B. Mansilla ↓ · N. Djouahra ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
83'
A. Dante ↓ · A. Sola ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
83'
Jose Fontán
Yellow Card
▮
84'
Jose Fontán
Red Card
▮
84'
86'
⚽
J. De Haas
1–1
87'
⇄
Rochinha ↓ · Gil Dias ↑
Substitution 4
Brian Mansilla
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Arouca and Famalicao drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.26 to 0.66. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 7, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Trezza (58'), J. De Haas (86'). Jose Fontán was sent off in the 84' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 6 graded markets, 3 landed and 3 missed, for a net +0.09 units (Brier 0.161).

Bet recap · markets settled

6 · 3 W · 3 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
AH Home +1 1.33 — 88% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.38 — 75% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.00 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.25 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.40 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.38 — 27% Cashed +2.38 Cashed
Total · 6 markets @ 1u each — — — 3 W · 3 L +0.09u +1% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
ARO – FAM @ 4.00
+8.0%
Edge
Forecast →