Match AVS vs Alverca October 4, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AVS vs Alverca — betting preview

Alverca carry the stronger overall level and a cleaner recent trend, while AVS have struggled to turn possession into threat. Expect a measured tempo with the visitors shading chance quality and AVS leaning on moments or set pieces. The model keeps away-sided outcomes in front and respects a controlled scoreline: fades of the AVS goal and conservative totals profile best, with draw protection on Alverca a sensible alternative.

Risks: an early AVS strike flipping the game state, set-piece variance, and a late stretch if Alverca chase or protect a narrow lead.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

AVS 4-2-3-1 · ALV 3-4-3

AVS · 4-2-3-1 3-4-3 · ALV

7 Tomané

Subs used · AVS

57'

Lourenco ↑ ·

Rivas ↓

57'

Kiki ↑ ·

Lima ↓

72'

Kodisang ↑ ·

Assuncao ↓

72'

Mendonca ↑ ·

Barbosa ↓

84'

Nene ↑ ·

Tomane ↓

Subs used · ALV

62'

Lima ↑ ·

Marezi ↓

75'

Nuozzi ↑ ·

Figueiredo ↓

75'

Mendes ↑ ·

Gui ↓

88'

Esteves ↑ ·

Lincoln ↓

88'

Cabezas ↑ ·

Amorim ↓

📊 Statistics

AVS 1 – 3 ALV

49%

Possession (%)

51%

0.42

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.27

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 1 – 3

Pedro Lima

Assist · D. Rivas · 1–0

⚽

Pedro Lima

Yellow Card

▮

24'

Babatunde Akinsola

Yellow Card

▮

40'

45'

⚽

Amorim

1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

51'

⚽

Figueiredo

Assist · Lincoln · 1–2

B. Lourenco ↓ · D. Rivas ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

57'

Kiki ↓ · Pedro Lima ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

57'

Sidi Bane

Yellow Card

▮

59'

62'

⇄

Sandro Lima ↓ · Marezi ↑

Substitution 1

66'

▮

Bastien Meupiyou

Yellow Card

K. Kodisang ↓ · G. Assuncao ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

72'

G. Mendonca ↓ · R. Barbosa ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

72'

75'

⇄

C. Nuozzi ↓ · Figueiredo ↑

Substitution 2

75'

⇄

T. Mendes ↓ · D. Gui ↑

Substitution 3

Nene ↓ · Tomane ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

84'

88'

⇄

G. Esteves ↓ · Lincoln ↑

Substitution 4

88'

⇄

G. Cabezas ↓ · Amorim ↑

Substitution 5

90'

⚽

G. Esteves

Assist · Sandro Lima · 1–3

90+6'

▮

Gonçalo Esteves

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Alverca won 3–1 away at AVS. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.27 to 0.42. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 5, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 0. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.27 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Pedro Lima (9'), Amorim (45'), Figueiredo (51'), G. Esteves (90').

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 2 landed and 5 missed, for a net -2.96 units (Brier 0.199).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 2 W · 5 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.60	—	44%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.44	—	73%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
BTTS No	1.83	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.77	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.20	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.60	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.05	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	2 W · 5 L	−2.96u	−42% ROI