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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Portugal Primeira Liga Casa Pia — Estoril

Match Casa Pia vs Estoril October 3, 2025

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Home · last 5 L L W D D
Kick-off
Fri 03 Oct · 19:15
2:2
Full-time
Estoril
Estoril
L L D D L Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior · Rio Maior Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe, Portugal
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 41% · book 2.98
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 31% · book 4.20
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 70% · book 1.55
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.11 – 1.28
Δ −0.17
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
4 / 7
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Casa Pia vs Estoril — prediction, probabilities & betting angles. The model leans toward Estoril: their overall level and away threat look a touch sharper, while Casa Pia’s recent home output has struggled to translate territory into high-quality chances. Expect an organized but open game in spurts — Estoril carry more direct speed, Casa Pia lean on restarts and second balls.

Game script & totals. A medium scoring baseline fits. If Estoril score first, transitions should open and lift the ceiling toward three-plus goals; if Casa Pia hold early, longer 0–1/1–1 phases stay live. Safer cover clusters around away-sided protection; higher-variance positions lean into the outright away result and the bigger ‘overs’.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

CAS 3-4-3 · EST 3-4-3
Subs used · CAS
63' Morais ↑ · Sousa
73' Mohamed ↑ · Nhaga
73' Cassiano ↑ · Rocha Livramento
88' Goulart ↑ · Rocha
88' Brito ↑ · Perez
Subs used · EST
27' Paula ↑ · Guitane
46' Begraoui ↑ · Marques
46' Garcia ↑ · Lominadze
46' Lacximicant ↑ · Carvalho
51' Parente ↑ · Amaral

📊 Statistics

CAS 22 EST
51%
Possession (%)
49%
1.11
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.28
11
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
3
4
Shots off Target
5
9
Shots Inside Box
8
6
Corner Kicks
7
3
Offsides
1
14
Fouls
12
78%
Pass Accuracy (%)
72%
3
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

20 · 2 – 2
14'
N. Lominadze
Assist · J. Carvalho · 0–1
27'
Patrick de Paula ↓ · R. Guitane ↑
Substitution 1
Kaique Rocha
Assist · J. Livolant · 1–1
28'
34'
Pedro Carvalho
Yellow Card
Miguel Sousa
Yellow Card
37'
J. Livolant
2–1
45'
Half-time · 2 – 1
46'
Y. Begraoui ↓ · A. Marques ↑
Substitution 2
46'
F. Garcia ↓ · N. Lominadze ↑
Substitution 3
46'
A. Lacximicant ↓ · P. Carvalho ↑
Substitution 4
51'
T. Parente ↓ · P. Amaral ↑
Substitution 5
59'
João Carvalho
Yellow Card
T. Morais ↓ · Miguel Sousa ↑
Substitution 1
63'
I. Mohamed ↓ · R. Nhaga ↑
Substitution 2
73'
Cassiano ↓ · D. Rocha Livramento ↑
Substitution 3
73'
Daniel Azevedo
Yellow Card
77'
David Sousa
Yellow Card
80'
84'
J. Carvalho
2–2
J. Goulart ↓ · Kaique Rocha ↑
Substitution 4
88'
R. Brito ↓ · S. Perez ↑
Substitution 5
88'
90+2'
Ferro
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 2

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 4 W · 3 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.98 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.20 31% Cashed +3.20 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.55 70% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Home Team Total Under 0.5 3.25 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.91 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.42 73% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.23 46% Cashed +1.23 Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each 4 W · 3 L +2.40u +34% ROI