Leeds vs Nottingham Forest 3:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.36 — +7.3% better than the market.

Leeds hold a clear quality edge over Nottingham Forest, boosted by a solid home defensive record and a sharper attack facing a vulnerable away defense. Their recent form shows resilience, while Forest’s slightly better recent points per game hints at some momentum. Expect Leeds to leverage their home advantage with a compact block and quick transitions.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
Leeds’ pressing edge and set-piece threat
Moderate pace suggested by balanced goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.36 ✓ Cashed

AI 79% Implied 74% +0.36u

+36%

ROI on stake

Lineups

LEE 3-4-2-1 · NOT 4-2-3-1

LEE · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · NOT

9 Calvert-Lewin ⚽

Subs used · LEE

78'

James ↑ ·

Aaronson ↓

82'

Longstaff ↑ ·

Okafor ↓

90+6'

Bornauw ↑ ·

Bogle ↓

Subs used · NOT

54'

Lucca ↑ ·

Jesus ↓

54'

Hutchinson ↑ ·

Dominguez ↓

67'

Ndoye ↑ ·

Hudson-Odoi ↓

67'

Yates ↑ ·

Gibbs-White ↓

76'

Netz ↑ ·

Abbott ↓

Statistics

LEE 3 – 1 NOT

56%

Possession (%)

44%

2.50

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.13

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

14 · 3 – 1

J. Bogle

Assist · I. Gruev · 1–0

⚽

26'

N. Okafor

Assist · J. Justin · 2–0

⚽

30'

Half-time · 2 – 0

D. Calvert-Lewin

Assist · I. Gruev · 3–0

⚽

49'

54'

⇄

L. Lucca ↓ · Igor Jesus ↑

Substitution 1

54'

⇄

O. Hutchinson ↓ · N. Dominguez ↑

Substitution 2

Noah Okafor

Yellow Card

▮

61'

62'

▮

Ibrahim Sangaré

Yellow Card

67'

⇄

D. Ndoye ↓ · C. Hudson-Odoi ↑

Substitution 3

67'

⇄

R. Yates ↓ · M. Gibbs-White ↑

Substitution 4

76'

⇄

L. Netz ↓ · Z. Abbott ↑

Substitution 5

D. James ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

78'

S. Longstaff ↓ · N. Okafor ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

82'

86'

⚽

L. Lucca

Assist · O. Hutchinson · 3–1

S. Bornauw ↓ · J. Bogle ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+6'

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Leeds beat Nottingham Forest 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.50 to 1.13. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: J. Bogle (26'), N. Okafor (30'), D. Calvert-Lewin (49'), L. Lucca (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.44 units (Brier 0.203).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.28	—	52%	Cashed	+1.28	Cashed
BTTS No	2.00	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.88	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.15	—	44%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	47%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.60	—	52%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.71	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.52	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.36	—	79%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.35	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.30	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.38	—	69%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.45	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.80	—	23%	Cashed	+2.80	Cashed
Away Win	3.54	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.44u	−8% ROI

Leeds vs Nottingham Forest 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled