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Home › England › Premier League › Aston Villa — Everton

Predictions by Market: Aston Villa vs Everton

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 18 Jan · 16:30
0:1
Full-time
Everton
Everton
L D D L L Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Tony Harrington, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AST
63%
Best 1.62
Draw
23%
Best 3.98
Away Win · EVE
13%
Best 5.70
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.75
Fair odds
3.37
book 3.75 · +11.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 30% · EV +11.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (70%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 63.4%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality High
✓ Draw
Probability 23.4%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 13.1%
Odds 5.60
Show model details
Implied probability 17.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 55.2%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 44.8%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 29.7%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 9.5%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 76%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.5%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 24%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 52.5%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 47.5%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 63.4%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 13.1%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 36.6%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 86.9%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
AST – EVE @ 3.75
+11.3%
Edge
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