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Home › Italy › Serie A › Parma — Sassuolo

Parma vs Sassuolo 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Parma
Parma
Home · last 5 W L L L W
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 13:00
1:0
Full-time
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
D W L L L Away · last 5
Stadio Ennio Tardini · Parma Referee Niccolo Turrini, Italy
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.96 ✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 46% · book 2.71 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 2.10 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.22 – 0.92
Δ +0.30
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.10 — +13.9% better than the market.

Sassuolo arrives with a clear quality edge and slightly better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite Parma's home ground advantage. Parma's defensive solidity faces a stern test against Sassuolo's sharper attack, but the home side's compact block and recent wins hint at resilience. Expect a cautious tempo with a pressing edge from Sassuolo trying to break down a disciplined Parma backline.

  • Quality gap favors away side
  • Home defensive strength vs away offensive threat
  • Balanced pace with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.10 ✓ Cashed
AI 54% Implied 48% +1.10u
+110%
ROI on stake

Lineups

PAR 3-5-2 · SAS 4-3-3
PAR · 3-5-2 4-3-3 · SAS 40 Corvi 39 Circati 37 Troilo 5 Valenti 27 Britschgi 16 Keita 41 Caviglia 24 Ordoñez 14 Valeri 76 Mikołajewski 9 Pellegrino ⚽ 13 Turati 25 Coulibaly 21 Idzes 31 Macchioni 23 Garcia 42 Thorstvedt 35 Lipani 90 Koné 10 Berardi 99 Pinamonti 45 Laurienté
Subs used · PAR
46' Cardinali ↑ · Mikolajewski ↓
61' Ndiaye ↑ · Valenti ↓
72' Sorensen ↑ · Keita ↓
73' Almqvist ↑ · Britschgi ↓
76' Carboni ↑ · Valeri ↓
Subs used · SAS
54' Felipe ↑ · Idzes ↓
65' Matic ↑ · Kone ↓
66' Nzola ↑ · Lauriente ↓
83' Volpato ↑ · Lipani ↓
83' Zacchi ↑ · Turati ↓

Statistics

PAR 1 – 0 SAS
52%
Possession (%)
48%
1.22
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.92
16
Total Shots
6
3
Shots on Target
1
11
Shots off Target
4
9
Shots Inside Box
3
1
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
14
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
2
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

15 · 1 – 0
S. Britschgi
Yellow Card
▮
7'
18'
▮
K. Thorstvedt
Yellow Card
21'
▮
T. Macchioni
Yellow Card
L. Valenti
Yellow Card
▮
30'
Half-time · 0 – 0
A. Cardinali ↓ · D. Mikolajewski ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
54'
⇄
Pedro Felipe ↓ · J. Idzes ↑
Substitution 1
A. Ndiaye ↓ · L. Valenti ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
65'
⇄
N. Matic ↓ · I. Kone ↑
Substitution 2
66'
⇄
M. Nzola ↓ · A. Lauriente ↑
Substitution 3
O. Sorensen ↓ · M. Keita ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
72'
P. Almqvist ↓ · S. Britschgi ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
73'
F. Carboni ↓ · E. Valeri ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
76'
M. Pellegrino
Assist · P. Almqvist · 1–0
⚽
80'
83'
⇄
C. Volpato ↓ · L. Lipani ↑
Substitution 4
83'
⇄
G. Zacchi ↓ · S. Turati ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Parma beat Sassuolo 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 6, 3 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Pellegrino (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.49 units (Brier 0.234).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.96 1.91 59% Cashed +0.96 Cashed
Away Win 2.71 2.58 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.10 2.10 54% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.94 1.88 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.98 1.91 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.73 1.67 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.80 2.78 28% Cashed +1.80 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.00 2.02 28% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.50 1.44 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.75 3.50 34% Cashed +2.75 Cashed
Under 0.5 11.00 10.99 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.33 1.33 79% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.52 1.50 54% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 1.04 88% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.46 3.40 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.29 1.28 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.40 3.19 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.49u −3% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
PAR – SAS @ 2.10
+13.9%
Edge
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