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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football Italy Serie A Parma — Sassuolo
Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Parma
Parma
Home · last 5 W W L L L
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 13:00
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
W D W L L Away · last 5
Stadio Ennio Tardini · Parma Referee N. Turrini
Home Win · PAR
28%
Best 2.80
Draw
26%
Best 3.48
Away Win · SAS
46%
Best 2.70
Best bet
BTTS No
@ 2.10
Fair odds
1.84
book 2.10 · +13.9% better than market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Best bet confidence
Medium
p 54% · EV +13.9%
AI preview · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.10 — +13.9% better than the market.

Sassuolo arrives with a clear quality edge and slightly better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite Parma's home ground advantage. Parma's defensive solidity faces a stern test against Sassuolo's sharper attack, but the home side's compact block and recent wins hint at resilience. Expect a cautious tempo with a pressing edge from Sassuolo trying to break down a disciplined Parma backline.

  • Quality gap favors away side
  • Home defensive strength vs away offensive threat
  • Balanced pace with under 2.5 goals likely

Best bet of the night · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.10
AI 54% Implied 48% Value
+13.9%
Expected value
Why we like it. Line drifted 1.4 pp against our pick — use caution.

Market · Fair (consensus)

4 bookmakers consensus · 15-min refresh
Market Best bookmaker Fair (consensus) AI prob. Edge
BTTS No 2.10 2.10 54% +13.9% Top pick
Double Chance X2 1.50 1.44 72% +8.0% Watch
Under 3.5 1.33 1.33 79% +5.5% Watch
Over 0.5 1.05 1.05 88% −7.2% Pass
Draw 3.46 3.40 26% −8.6% Pass
Over 1.5 1.29 1.28 66% −15.2% Pass
Double Chance 1X 1.52 1.44 54% −17.3% Pass
Over 2.5 1.98 1.91 41% −19.6% Pass
BTTS Yes 1.73 1.69 46% −20.8% Pass
Home Win 2.80 2.70 28% −21.6% Pass
Over 3.5 3.40 3.20 21% −29.7% Pass
BTTS No
book 2.10 · fair 2.10 · 54%
+13.9%
Top pick
Double Chance X2
book 1.50 · fair 1.44 · 72%
+8.0%
Watch
Under 3.5
book 1.33 · fair 1.33 · 79%
+5.5%
Watch
Over 0.5
book 1.05 · fair 1.05 · 88%
−7.2%
Pass
Draw
book 3.46 · fair 3.40 · 26%
−8.6%
Pass
Over 1.5
book 1.29 · fair 1.28 · 66%
−15.2%
Pass
Double Chance 1X
book 1.52 · fair 1.44 · 54%
−17.3%
Pass
Over 2.5
book 1.98 · fair 1.91 · 41%
−19.6%
Pass
BTTS Yes
book 1.73 · fair 1.69 · 46%
−20.8%
Pass
Home Win
book 2.80 · fair 2.70 · 28%
−21.6%
Pass
Over 3.5
book 3.40 · fair 3.20 · 21%
−29.7%
Pass
Best bookmaker — highest offer across all bookmakers. Fair (consensus) — median of all bookmakers with the bookmaker margin removed. AI prob. — AI's estimated probability of the outcome. Edge — how much the best bookmaker beats the AI-implied price (positive = value). ★ Top pick — highest-EV value bet; Watch — positive edge below the value threshold; Pass — no edge.

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
0.73
Goals Scored
1.24
1.24
Goals Conceded
1.32
0.83
Expected Goals (xG)
1.10
2.73
Shots on Target
3.84
3.89
Corners
3.84
43.84
Possession (%)
46.05
92.45
Efficiency index
109.98
63.21
Adjusted index
83.36
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
5
OFF · home
30
10
DEF · home
25
10
OFF · away
45
45
DEF · away
40
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

📈 Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win

🎯 Scenario insights

Parma wins when scoring first
50%
Sassuolo wins when scoring first
67%
Parma BTTS rate · last 10
40%
Sassuolo BTTS rate · last 10
70%
Parma Over 2.5 · last 10
20%
Sassuolo Over 2.5 · last 10
60%
Parma comeback rate · last 10
0%
Sassuolo comeback rate · last 10
20%

🔥 Goal timing

Parma · last 10 at home

0–15 25%
16–30 0%
31–45 0%
46–60 25%
61–75 0%
76–90 50%

Sassuolo · last 10 away

0–15 0%
16–30 11%
31–45 11%
46–60 67%
61–75 11%
76–90 0%
Second-half-heavy — most goals come after the break.

Top scorers

Mateo Pellegrino
PAR · Attacker
8 G · 0.25 g/90
A. Pinamonti
SAS · Attacker
9 G · 0.33 g/90
D. Berardi
SAS · Attacker
8 G · 0.38 g/90
Best bet of the night · BTTS No
PAR – SAS @ 2.10
+13.9%
Edge
Forecast →