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Home › Italy › Serie A › Cremonese — Como

Cremonese vs Como 1:4: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Cremonese
Cremonese
Home · last 5 L L W W L
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 18:45
1:4
Full-time
Como
Como
W D W W W Away · last 5
Stadio Giovanni Zini · Cremona Referee Fabio Maresca, Italy
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 68% · book 1.52 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 52% · book 2.24 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 51% · book 2.05 ✗
Total goals
5
1 · 4
xG (open play)
1.06 – 2.35
Δ −1.29
Possession
30% – 70%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.44 — +4.2% better than the market.

Como arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand at Stadio Giovanni Zini. Cremonese’s defensive solidity might keep things tight, but Como’s sharper attack and superior overall strength hint at a likely away success. The home side’s slight home edge is overshadowed by Como’s pressing and offensive threat.

  • Como’s attacking edge challenges Cremonese’s defense
  • Home side’s compact block may limit goals
  • Recent form favors the visitors’ momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.44 ✗ Lost
AI 72% Implied 69% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CRE 3-5-2 · COM 4-2-3-1
CRE · 3-5-2 4-2-3-1 · COM 1 Audero 24 Terracciano 15 Bianchetti 5 Luperto 7 Zerbin 2 Thorsby 33 Grassi 29 Maleh 3 Pezzella 90 Bonazzoli ⚽ 10 Vardy 1 Butez 28 Smolčić 14 Ramón 2 Kempf 18 Moreno 23 Perrone 33 Cunha ⚽ 38 Diao 20 Baturina 17 Rodriguez ⚽ 11 Douvikas ⚽
Subs used · CRE
16' Vandeputte ↑ · Maleh ↓
46' Floriani ↑ · Zerbin ↓
46' Collocolo ↑ · Thorsby ↓
83' Barbieri ↑ · Terracciano ↓
85' Lottici Tessadri ↑ · Bonazzoli ↓
Subs used · COM
64' Caqueret ↑ · Rodriguez ↓
76' Van der Brempt ↑ · Moreno ↓
83' Vojvoda ↑ · Diao ↓
83' Morata ↑ · Douvikas ↓
83' Roberto ↑ · Baturina ↓

Statistics

CRE 1 – 4 COM
30%
Possession (%)
70%
1.06
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.35
6
Total Shots
15
1
Shots on Target
6
4
Shots off Target
3
4
Shots Inside Box
12
2
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
3
14
Fouls
12
68%
Pass Accuracy (%)
89%
4
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

24 · 1 – 4
J. Vandeputte ↓ · Y. Maleh ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
16'
20'
▮
J. Rodriguez
Yellow Card
M. Thorsby
Yellow Card
▮
21'
36'
⚽
J. Rodriguez
0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
R. Floriani ↓ · A. Zerbin ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
M. Collocolo ↓ · M. Thorsby ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
46'
49'
▮
A. Moreno
Yellow Card
51'
⚽
A. Douvikas
Assist · J. Rodriguez · 0–2
F. Bonazzoli (P)
Penalty · 1–2
⚽
55'
J. Vardy
Yellow Card
▮
61'
64'
⇄
M. Caqueret ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 1
M. Djuric
Red Card
▮
71'
M. Bianchetti
Yellow Card
▮
71'
A. Grassi
Red Card
▮
71'
D. Okereke
Red Card
▮
72'
74'
⚽
L. Da Cunha (P)
Penalty · 1–3
76'
⇄
I. Van der Brempt ↓ · A. Moreno ↑
Substitution 2
J. Vandeputte
Yellow Card
▮
76'
81'
⚽
L. Da Cunha
Assist · M. Caqueret · 1–4
83'
⇄
M. Vojvoda ↓ · A. Diao ↑
Substitution 3
83'
⇄
A. Morata ↓ · A. Douvikas ↑
Substitution 4
83'
⇄
S. Roberto ↓ · M. Baturina ↑
Substitution 5
T. Barbieri ↓ · F. Terracciano ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
83'
S. Lottici Tessadri ↓ · F. Bonazzoli ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Como won 4–1 away at Cremonese. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 70% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.35 to 1.06. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 6, 6 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.35 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Rodriguez (36'), A. Douvikas (51'), F. Bonazzoli (55'), L. Da Cunha (74'), L. Da Cunha (81'). M. Djuric was sent off in the 71' minute. A. Grassi was sent off in the 71' minute. D. Okereke was sent off in the 72' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.44 units (Brier 0.157).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 1.52 1.46 68% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.24 2.10 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.05 1.91 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.83 49% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.76 1.73 48% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 2.70 2.62 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 1.41 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 4.05 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.18 1.12 87% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.88 2.75 28% Cashed +1.88 Cashed
Under 0.5 14.60 12.99 8% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.21 1.16 65% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Draw 4.43 4.50 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 1.01 92% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.22 1.20 73% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Home Win 5.72 6.25 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 4.25 4.81 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.44u −26% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
CRE – COM @ 1.44
+4.2%
Edge
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