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Home › Italy › Serie A › AC Milan — Cagliari

Predictions by Market: AC Milan vs Cagliari

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AC Milan
AC Milan
Home · last 5 D L L W L
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 18:45
1:2
Full-time
Cagliari
Cagliari
W D L W W Away · last 5
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza · Milan Referee Marco Guida, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MIL
76%
Best 1.33
Draw
18%
Best 5.43
Away Win · CAG
6%
Best 12.40
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.50
Fair odds
4.04
book 4.50 · +11.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 25% · EV +11.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (75%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 17.9%
Odds 5.79
Show model details
Implied probability 17.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 6.4%
Odds 12.00
Show model details
Implied probability 8.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 49.1%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 50.9%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 29.8%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 24.8%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 70.2%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 7.6%
Odds 14.60
Show model details
Implied probability 6.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.4%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 44%
Odds 2.21
Show model details
Implied probability 45.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 56%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 6.4%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.6%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 24.3%
Odds 3.64
Show model details
Implied probability 27.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MIL – CAG @ 4.50
+11.4%
Edge
Forecast →