Lazio holds a clear quality edge and home momentum against struggling Pisa. Their defensive solidity and superior offensive firepower suggest control over the match tempo. Pisa's recent form is weak, and Lazio's pressing and set-piece threat could exploit defensive gaps.
Provstgaard ↑
· 
Gila ↓
Maldini ↑
· 
Cancellieri ↓
Lazzari ↑
· 
Pellegrini ↓
Przyborek ↑
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Dele-Bashiru ↓
Lazio beat Pisa 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.
On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.55 to 1.01. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 8, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: S. Moreo (23'), F. Dele-Bashiru (33'), Pedro (35').
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.34 units (Brier 0.123).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 2.09 | 1.91 | 56% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 1.77 | 1.73 | 62% | Cashed | +0.77 | Cashed |
| BTTS No | 1.91 | 1.93 | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 1.91 | 1.81 | 45% | Cashed | +0.91 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 2.17 | 2.10 | 38% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 44% | Cashed | +0.86 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.40 | 1.31 | 76% | Cashed | +0.40 | Cashed |
| Under 1.5 | 4.10 | 3.60 | 31% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.16 | 1.18 | 88% | Cashed | +0.16 | Cashed |
| Under 0.5 | 12.60 | 10.00 | 10% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 62% | Cashed | +0.27 | Cashed |
| Over 3.5 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 24% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 4.40 | 3.65 | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 90% | Cashed | +0.04 | Cashed |
| Over 1.5 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 69% | Cashed | +0.25 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 6.50 | 4.74 | 12% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 3.55 | 3.45 | 15% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 8 W · 9 L | −5.34u | −31% ROI |
