Match Parma vs Pisa April 25, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.67 — +12.1% better than the market.

Parma holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a home advantage that should help them control the game tempo. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Pisa's struggles on the road, suggesting a compact block and disciplined approach from the hosts. Despite Parma's mixed recent form, Pisa's poor run and defensive vulnerabilities away from home hint at a low-scoring encounter.

Home momentum in defense
Attacking mismatch favoring Parma's solidity
Likely cautious pace with under 2.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.67 ✓ Cashed

AI 67% Implied 60% +0.67u

+67%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAR 3-5-2 · PIS 3-5-2

PAR · 3-5-2 3-5-2 · PIS

7 Strefezza

Subs used · PAR

65'

Ordonez ↑ ·

Keita ↓

66'

Elphege ↑ ·

Strefezza ↓

78'

Estevez ↑ ·

Nicolussi Caviglia ↓

78'

Sorensen ↑ ·

Bernabe ↓

81'

Almqvist ↑ ·

Delprato ↓

Subs used · PIS

46'

Piccinini ↑ ·

Vural ↓

65'

Toure ↑ ·

Leris ↓

66'

Meister ↑ ·

Stojilkovic ↓

80'

Cuadrado ↑ ·

Akinsanmiro ↓

80'

Lorran ↑ ·

Bozhinov ↓

📊 Statistics

PAR 1 – 0 PIS

51%

Possession (%)

49%

1.57

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.28

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 0

18'

▮

Simone Canestrelli

Yellow Card

44'

▮

Isak Vural

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

⇄

G. Piccinini ↓ · I. Vural ↑

Substitution 1

C. Ordonez ↓ · M. Keita ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

⇄

I. Toure ↓ · M. Leris ↑

Substitution 2

N. Elphege ↓ · G. Strefezza ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

⇄

H. Meister ↓ · F. Stojilkovic ↑

Substitution 3

N. Estevez ↓ · H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

O. Sorensen ↓ · A. Bernabe ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

80'

⇄

J. Cuadrado ↓ · E. Akinsanmiro ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

Lorran ↓ · R. Bozhinov ↑

Substitution 5

P. Almqvist ↓ · E. Delprato ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

N. Elphege

Assist · O. Sorensen · 1–0

⚽

82'

Abdoulaye Ndiaye

Yellow Card

▮

89'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Parma beat Pisa 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Elphege (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.18 units (Brier 0.126).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.67	—	67%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
BTTS No	1.85	—	60%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Home Win	2.17	—	54%	Cashed	+1.17	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.79	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.41	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.75	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.00	—	41%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	81%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.23	—	85%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.45	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.50	—	54%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	86%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	3.38	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.90	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.60	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.18u	−19% ROI