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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lecce — Fiorentina

Predictions by Market: Lecce vs Fiorentina

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lecce
Lecce
Home · last 5 D W L W W
Kick-off
Mon 20 Apr · 18:45
1:1
Full-time
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
D L D W D Away · last 5
Referee Fabio Maresca, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · LEC
21%
Best 3.55
Draw
26%
Best 3.30
Away Win · FIO
53%
Best 2.14
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.20
Fair odds
2.93
book 3.20 · +9.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 34% · EV +9.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (66%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Top pick
Probability 53.1%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 26.4%
Odds 3.48
Show model details
Implied probability 28.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win
Probability 20.6%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 60.5%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 39.5%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 34.1%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 11.2%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 80.1%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.8%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 19.9%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Top pick
Probability 55.2%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 44.8%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 20.6%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 53.1%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 46.9%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 79.5%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
LEC – FIO @ 3.20
+9.2%
Edge
Forecast →