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Home › Italy › Serie A › Napoli — Lazio

Predictions by Market: Napoli vs Lazio

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 18 Apr · 16:00
0:2
Full-time
Lazio
Lazio
D W L L W Away · last 5
Referee Luca Zufferli, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · NAP
66%
Best 1.53
Draw
24%
Best 3.90
Away Win · LAZ
11%
Best 7.00
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.20
Fair odds
2.90
book 3.20 · +10.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 35% · EV +10.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (65%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.65
Show model details
Implied probability 60.6%
Bet quality High
✓ Draw
Probability 23.6%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 10.6%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 61.5%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 38.5%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 11.3%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 80.9%
Odds 1.24
Show model details
Implied probability 80.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.7%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 19.2%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 59%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 41%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 10.6%
Odds 4.86
Show model details
Implied probability 20.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 34.2%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 89.4%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAP – LAZ @ 3.20
+10.5%
Edge
Forecast →