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Como vs Inter 3:4: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Como
Como
Home · last 5 W D W W W
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 18:45
3:4
Full-time
Inter
Inter
D W W D D Away · last 5
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia · Como Referee Davide Massa, Italy
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.94 ✓
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 51% · book 2.32 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.70 ✓
Total goals
7
3 · 4
xG (open play)
2.79 – 0.88
Δ +1.91
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.94 — +14.4% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.94 ✓ Cashed
AI 59% Implied 52% +0.94u
+94%
ROI on stake

Lineups

COM 4-2-3-1 · INT 3-5-2
Subs used · COM
46' Da Cunha ↑ · Roberto ↓
46' Ramon ↑ · Carlos ↓
67' Smolcic ↑ · Van der Brempt ↓
79' Morata ↑ · Diao ↓
80' Moreno ↑ · Valle ↓
Subs used · INT
46' Augusto ↑ · Bastoni ↓
56' Sucic ↑ · Zielinski ↓
56' Henrique ↑ · Dimarco ↓
56' Bonny ↑ · Esposito ↓
78' Mkhitaryan ↑ · Barella ↓

Statistics

COM 3 – 4 INT
60%
Possession (%)
40%
2.79
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.88
24
Total Shots
7
8
Shots on Target
5
9
Shots off Target
1
16
Shots Inside Box
5
1
Corner Kicks
1
2
Offsides
4
12
Fouls
17
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
3
Yellow Cards
7
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

27 · 3 – 4
Álex Valle
Yellow Card
▮
24'
A. Valle
1–0
⚽
36'
N. Paz
Assist · J. Butez · 2–0
⚽
45'
45'
⚽
M. Thuram
Assist · N. Barella · 2–1
Half-time · 2 – 1
L. Da Cunha ↓ · S. Roberto ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
J. Ramon ↓ · Diego Carlos ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
46'
⇄
Carlos Augusto ↓ · A. Bastoni ↑
Substitution 1
49'
⚽
M. Thuram
2–2
53'
▮
Piotr Zieliński
Yellow Card
Assane Diao
Yellow Card
▮
55'
56'
⇄
P. Sucic ↓ · P. Zielinski ↑
Substitution 2
56'
⇄
Luis Henrique ↓ · F. Dimarco ↑
Substitution 3
56'
⇄
A. Bonny ↓ · F. Esposito ↑
Substitution 4
58'
⚽
D. Dumfries
Assist · H. Calhanoglu · 2–3
I. Smolcic ↓ · I. Van der Brempt ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
67'
69'
▮
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Yellow Card
72'
⚽
D. Dumfries
2–4
77'
▮
Petar Sučić
Yellow Card
78'
⇄
H. Mkhitaryan ↓ · N. Barella ↑
Substitution 5
79'
▮
Francesco Acerbi
Yellow Card
A. Morata ↓ · A. Diao ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
A. Moreno ↓ · A. Valle ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
83'
▮
Carlos Augusto
Yellow Card
87'
▮
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Yellow Card
L. Da Cunha (P)
Penalty · 3–4
⚽
89'
Jacobo Ramón
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
90+1'
▮
Manuel Akanji
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 4

Match recap

Inter won 4–3 away at Como. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.79 to 0.88. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 24 shots to 7, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 0.88 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 10 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Valle (36'), N. Paz (45'), M. Thuram (45'), M. Thuram (49'), D. Dumfries (58'), D. Dumfries (72'), L. Da Cunha (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.36 units (Brier 0.144).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.94 — 59% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
Away Win 2.32 — 51% Cashed +1.32 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.70 — 60% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
BTTS No 2.17 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.65 — 51% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.00 — 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.68 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.36 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.30 — 37% Cashed +2.30 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.38 — 77% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.29 — 81% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 — 94% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Draw 3.56 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.38 — 63% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.90 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.29 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 11.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.36u −14% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
COM – INT @ 1.94
+14.4%
Edge
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