Match Cagliari vs Cremonese April 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.66 — +13.0% better than the market.

Cagliari hosts Cremonese with a clear quality edge and a notable home defensive strength that could stifle the visitors' attack. Despite recent struggles, Cagliari's compact block and home momentum offer them a slight advantage. Cremonese's form shows some resilience, but their away defensive frailties might be exposed.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive pressure
Recent form favors Cremonese slightly but lacks consistency
Lower expected goals hint at a cautious, low-scoring game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.66 ✓ Cashed

AI 68% Implied 60% +0.66u

+66%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CAG 4-2-3-1 · CRE 4-4-2

CAG · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · CRE

29 Borrelli

Subs used · CAG

31'

Adopo ↑ ·

Mazzitelli ↓

61'

Pedro ↑ ·

Folorunsho ↓

61'

Mendy ↑ ·

Borrelli ↓

88'

Belotti ↑ ·

Esposito ↓

89'

Dossena ↑ ·

Rodriguez ↓

Subs used · CRE

68'

Sanabria ↑ ·

Floriani ↓

68'

Payero ↑ ·

Vandeputte ↓

73'

Barbieri ↑ ·

Terracciano ↓

78'

Djuric ↑ ·

Bondo ↓

78'

Zerbin ↑ ·

Okereke ↓

📊 Statistics

CAG 1 – 0 CRE

35%

Possession (%)

65%

1.02

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.28

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 1 – 0

▮

Filippo Terracciano

Yellow Card

M. Adopo ↓ · L. Mazzitelli ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

31'

Half-time · 0 – 0

J. Pedro ↓ · M. Folorunsho ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

P. Mendy ↓ · G. Borrelli ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

Michel Adopo

Yellow Card

▮

62'

S. Esposito

Assist · J. Pedro · 1–0

⚽

63'

68'

⇄

A. Sanabria ↓ · R. Floriani ↑

Substitution 1

68'

⇄

M. Payero ↓ · J. Vandeputte ↑

Substitution 2

73'

⇄

T. Barbieri ↓ · F. Terracciano ↑

Substitution 3

78'

⇄

M. Djuric ↓ · W. Bondo ↑

Substitution 4

78'

⇄

A. Zerbin ↓ · D. Okereke ↑

Substitution 5

A. Belotti ↓ · S. Esposito ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

A. Dossena ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Cagliari beat Cremonese 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 85% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.02 to 0.28. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 5, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: S. Esposito (63').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.20 units (Brier 0.125).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.66	—	68%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
BTTS No	1.85	—	61%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Home Win	2.24	—	53%	Cashed	+1.24	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.73	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.44	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.72	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.89	—	42%	Cashed	+1.89	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	81%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.23	—	85%	Cashed	+0.23	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.47	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.52	—	53%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.11	—	85%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Draw	3.21	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.91	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.60	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.20u	−19% ROI