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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football › Italy › Serie A › Cagliari — Cremonese

Match Cagliari vs Cremonese April 11, 2026

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Cagliari
Cagliari
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 11 Apr · 13:00
1:0
Full-time
Cremonese
Cremonese
L L W W L Away · last 5
Unipol Domus · Cagliari Referee D. Doveri
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 68% · book 1.66 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 61% · book 1.85 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 53% · book 2.24 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.02 – 0.28
Δ +0.74
Possession
35% – 65%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.66 — +13.0% better than the market.

Cagliari hosts Cremonese with a clear quality edge and a notable home defensive strength that could stifle the visitors' attack. Despite recent struggles, Cagliari's compact block and home momentum offer them a slight advantage. Cremonese's form shows some resilience, but their away defensive frailties might be exposed.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away offensive pressure
  • Recent form favors Cremonese slightly but lacks consistency
  • Lower expected goals hint at a cautious, low-scoring game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.66 ✓ Cashed
AI 68% Implied 60% +0.66u
+66%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CAG 4-2-3-1 · CRE 4-4-2
CAG · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · CRE 1 Caprile 2 Palestra 26 Mina 15 Rodríguez 33 Obert 4 Mazzitelli 10 Gaetano 94 Esposito ⚽ 14 Deiola 90 Folorunsho 29 Borrelli 1 Audero 24 Terracciano 6 Baschirotto 5 Luperto 3 Pezzella 22 Mussolini 38 Bondo 33 Grassi 27 Vandeputte 90 Bonazzoli 77 Okereke
Subs used · CAG
31' Adopo ↑ · Mazzitelli ↓
61' Pedro ↑ · Folorunsho ↓
61' Mendy ↑ · Borrelli ↓
88' Belotti ↑ · Esposito ↓
89' Dossena ↑ · Rodriguez ↓
Subs used · CRE
68' Sanabria ↑ · Floriani ↓
68' Payero ↑ · Vandeputte ↓
73' Barbieri ↑ · Terracciano ↓
78' Djuric ↑ · Bondo ↓
78' Zerbin ↑ · Okereke ↓

📊 Statistics

CAG 1 – 0 CRE
35%
Possession (%)
65%
1.02
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.28
17
Total Shots
5
5
Shots on Target
2
7
Shots off Target
2
10
Shots Inside Box
4
6
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
1
9
Fouls
17
75%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
1
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4

⏱ Match events

13 · 1 – 0
4'
▮
Filippo Terracciano
Yellow Card
M. Adopo ↓ · L. Mazzitelli ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
31'
Half-time · 0 – 0
J. Pedro ↓ · M. Folorunsho ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
P. Mendy ↓ · G. Borrelli ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
61'
Michel Adopo
Yellow Card
▮
62'
S. Esposito
Assist · J. Pedro · 1–0
⚽
63'
68'
⇄
A. Sanabria ↓ · R. Floriani ↑
Substitution 1
68'
⇄
M. Payero ↓ · J. Vandeputte ↑
Substitution 2
73'
⇄
T. Barbieri ↓ · F. Terracciano ↑
Substitution 3
78'
⇄
M. Djuric ↓ · W. Bondo ↑
Substitution 4
78'
⇄
A. Zerbin ↓ · D. Okereke ↑
Substitution 5
A. Belotti ↓ · S. Esposito ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
88'
A. Dossena ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
89'
Full-time · 1 – 0

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.66 — 68% Cashed +0.66 Cashed
BTTS No 1.85 — 61% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
Home Win 2.24 — 53% Cashed +1.24 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.73 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.00 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.44 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.72 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 2.89 — 42% Cashed +1.89 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.50 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.30 — 81% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.23 — 85% Cashed +0.23 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.47 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.52 — 53% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.11 — 85% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Draw 3.21 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.91 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.60 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.20u −19% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
CAG – CRE @ 1.66
+13.0%
Edge
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