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Home Italy Serie A Napoli — AC Milan

Predictions Napoli vs AC Milan April 6, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Mon 06 Apr · 18:45
1:0
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
D L L W L Away · last 5
Referee Daniele Doveri, Italy
Home Win · NAP
31%
Best 2.50
Draw
30%
Best 2.98
Away Win · MIL
40%
Best 3.20
Value pick
Over 2.5
@ 2.37
Fair odds
2.17
book 2.37 · +9.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 46% · EV +9.2%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 30.9%
Odds 2.60
Show model details
Implied probability 38.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Best in group
Probability 39.6%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 29.5%
Odds 3.11
Show model details
Implied probability 32.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 46.1%
Odds 2.37
Show model details
Implied probability 42.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 53.9%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 25.2%
Odds 4.40
Show model details
Implied probability 22.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 28.8%
Odds 3.01
Show model details
Implied probability 33.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.7%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 9.3%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 49.2%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 39.6%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 30.9%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 69.1%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.