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Home Italy Serie A Napoli — AC Milan

Predictions Napoli vs AC Milan April 6, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Mon 06 Apr · 18:45
1:0
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
D L L W L Away · last 5
Referee Daniele Doveri, Italy
Home Win · NAP
31%
Best 2.50
Draw
30%
Best 2.98
Away Win · MIL
40%
Best 3.20
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 4.40
Fair odds
3.97
book 4.40 · +10.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 25% · EV +10.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (75%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 30.9%
Odds 2.60
Show model details
Implied probability 38.5%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Best in group
Probability 39.6%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 29.5%
Odds 3.11
Show model details
Implied probability 32.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 46.1%
Odds 2.37
Show model details
Implied probability 42.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 53.9%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 25.2%
Odds 4.40
Show model details
Implied probability 22.7%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 28.8%
Odds 3.01
Show model details
Implied probability 33.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.7%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 9.3%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 49.2%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 39.6%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 30.9%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 69.1%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
NAP – MIL @ 4.40
+10.8%
Edge
Forecast →