Match Fiorentina vs Inter March 22, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.81 — +9.5% better than the market.

Inter enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a strong away offensive threat against Fiorentina's solid but less dynamic defense. Despite Fiorentina's home momentum and recent wins, Inter's pressing and tactical discipline could exploit gaps, especially given their superior form over the last five matches. The match hints at a lively pace with chances for both sides, but Inter's sharper attack and defensive resilience suggest they hold the upper hand.

Inter's offensive pressure vs Fiorentina's defense
Home momentum for Fiorentina but quality gap favors visitors
Potential for goals given attacking strengths and pace

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.81 ✗ Lost

AI 60% Implied 55% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FIO 4-1-4-1 · INT 3-5-2

FIO · 4-1-4-1 3-5-2 · INT

20 Kean

Subs used · FIO

69'

Harrison ↑ ·

Parisi ↓

86'

Piccoli ↑ ·

Kean ↓

90+1'

Fabbian ↑ ·

Fagioli ↓

90+1'

Comuzzo ↑ ·

Gudmundsson ↓

Subs used · INT

46'

Acerbi ↑ ·

Augusto ↓

68'

Bonny ↑ ·

Thuram ↓

69'

Frattesi ↑ ·

Calhanoglu ↓

83'

Sucic ↑ ·

Barella ↓

86'

Henrique ↑ ·

Dumfries ↓

📊 Statistics

FIO 1 – 1 INT

40%

Possession (%)

60%

2.28

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.22

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 1 – 1

⚽

F. Esposito

Assist · N. Barella · 0–1

42'

▮

Federico Dimarco

Yellow Card

44'

▮

Carlos Augusto

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 1

46'

⇄

F. Acerbi ↓ · Carlos Augusto ↑

Substitution 1

Marco Brescianini

Yellow Card

▮

55'

Cher Ndour

Yellow Card

▮

60'

62'

▮

Nicolò Barella

Yellow Card

Moise Kean

Yellow Card

▮

65'

68'

⇄

A. Bonny ↓ · M. Thuram ↑

Substitution 2

J. Harrison ↓ · F. Parisi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

69'

⇄

D. Frattesi ↓ · H. Calhanoglu ↑

Substitution 3

C. Ndour

1–1

⚽

77'

83'

⇄

P. Sucic ↓ · N. Barella ↑

Substitution 4

R. Piccoli ↓ · M. Kean ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

86'

⇄

Luis Henrique ↓ · D. Dumfries ↑

Substitution 5

G. Fabbian ↓ · N. Fagioli ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+1'

P. Comuzzo ↓ · A. Gudmundsson ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Fiorentina and Inter drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.28 to 1.22. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 6 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Esposito (1'), C. Ndour (77').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.33 units (Brier 0.199).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.81	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.67	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.81	—	58%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
BTTS No	2.08	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.15	—	40%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.38	—	35%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.00	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.40	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.20	—	87%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	—	61%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.26	—	81%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	95%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	4.38	—	22%	Cashed	+3.38	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.10	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.70	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	5.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	3.92	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.33u	−8% ROI