Cremonese vs Fiorentina 1:4: Match Review & Stats
Kick-off
Mon 16 Mar · 19:45
1:4
Full-time
Stadio Giovanni Zini · Cremona
Referee Marco Di Bello, Italy
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 57% · book 2.00
✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 54% · book 1.96
✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 50% · book 2.07
✗
xG (open play)
1.44 – 1.79
Δ −0.35
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Model verdict
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Away Win at 2.00 — +15.0% better than the market.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 2.00
✓ Cashed
AI 57%
Implied 50%
+1.00u
⛀ Lineups
CRE 3-5-2 · FIO 4-3-3
📊 Statistics
CRE 1
– 4 FIO
1.44
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.79
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
⏱ Match events
16 · 1 – 4
25'
⚽
F. Parisi
Assist · R. Mandragora · 0–1
32'
⚽
R. Piccoli
Assist · R. Gosens · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
D. Okereke ↓ · M. Thorsby ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
A. Grassi ↓ · W. Bondo ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
49'
⚽
Dodo
Assist · A. Gudmundsson · 0–3
D. Okereke
Assist · F. Ceccherini · 1–3
⚽
57'
J. Vandeputte ↓ · Y. Maleh ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
62'
A. Zerbin ↓ · R. Floriani ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
69'
70'
⚽
A. Gudmundsson
Assist · R. Piccoli · 1–4
75'
⇄
C. Ndour ↓ · R. Mandragora ↑
Substitution 1
76'
⇄
J. Harrison ↓ · A. Gudmundsson ↑
Substitution 2
F. Terracciano ↓ · F. Ceccherini ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
81'
⇄
J. Fazzini ↓ · F. Parisi ↑
Substitution 3
81'
⇄
D. Rugani ↓ · R. Gosens ↑
Substitution 4
88'
⇄
G. Fabbian ↓ · L. Ranieri ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 4
Match recap
Fiorentina won 4–1 away at Cremonese. At half-time it was 0–2.
In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.79 expected goals.
On the scoresheet: F. Parisi (25'), R. Piccoli (32'), Dodo (49'), D. Okereke (57'), A. Gudmundsson (70').
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.72 units (Brier 0.183).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
17 · 8 W · 9 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Away Win |
2.00 |
— |
57% |
Cashed |
+1.00 |
Cashed
|
| Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
— |
54% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.07 |
— |
50% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
— |
46% |
Cashed |
+0.98 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.81 |
— |
50% |
Cashed |
+0.81 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.92 |
— |
43% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
3.75 |
— |
29% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.28 |
— |
82% |
Cashed |
+0.28 |
Cashed
|
| AH Away 0 |
1.43 |
— |
57% |
Cashed |
+0.43 |
Cashed
|
| Under 0.5 |
11.80 |
— |
9% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.35 |
— |
75% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.07 |
— |
91% |
Cashed |
+0.07 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.31 |
— |
71% |
Cashed |
+0.31 |
Cashed
|
| Draw |
3.70 |
— |
25% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 3.5 |
3.40 |
— |
25% |
Cashed |
+2.40 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home 0 |
3.00 |
— |
18% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Home Win |
4.15 |
— |
18% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 9 L |
−2.72u |
−16% ROI |
