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Home › Italy › Serie A › Napoli — Lecce

Predictions by Market: Napoli vs Lecce

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 14 Mar · 17:00
2:1
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
D W L W W Away · last 5
Referee Rosario Abisso, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · NAP
74%
Best 1.41
Draw
20%
Best 4.53
Away Win · LEC
7%
Best 9.20
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.10
Fair odds
2.70
book 3.10 · +14.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 37% · EV +14.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (63%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 73.7%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 71.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 19.7%
Odds 5.01
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 6.7%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 63%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 37%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 37.1%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 62.9%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 12.6%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 87.5%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 17.8%
Odds 4.25
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 66.9%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 33.1%
Odds 2.82
Show model details
Implied probability 35.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 73.7%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 6.7%
Odds 6.95
Show model details
Implied probability 14.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.3%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 26.3%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAP – LEC @ 3.10
+14.9%
Edge
Forecast →