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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lazio — AC Milan

Predictions by Market: Lazio vs AC Milan

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 D W L L W
Kick-off
Sun 15 Mar · 19:45
1:0
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
D L L W L Away · last 5
Referee Marco Guida, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · LAZ
19%
Best 4.30
Draw
27%
Best 3.40
Away Win · MIL
55%
Best 1.86
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 4.33
Fair odds
3.93
book 4.33 · +10.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 25% · EV +10.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (75%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Top pick
Probability 55.1%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 26.5%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win
Probability 18.5%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 46.9%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 53.1%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 25.5%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 71.6%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 28.4%
Odds 3.05
Show model details
Implied probability 32.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.1%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 74.5%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 8.9%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 49.9%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 50.1%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 55.1%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 18.5%
Odds 2.86
Show model details
Implied probability 35%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 44.9%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 81.5%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
LAZ – MIL @ 4.33
+10.3%
Edge
Forecast →