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Home › Italy › Serie A › Cagliari — Como

Cagliari vs Como 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Cagliari
Cagliari
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 07 Mar · 14:00
1:2
Full-time
Como
Como
W D W W W Away · last 5
Unipol Domus · Cagliari Referee L. Marinelli
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 64% · book 1.69 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.85 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.81 ✗
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
0.47 – 0.55
Δ −0.08
Possession
43% – 57%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.69 — +8.9% better than the market.

Como enters this Serie A clash with a clear quality edge and recent momentum, showing sharper attacking threat against Cagliari's sturdy but vulnerable defense. The home side's form has been patchy, and their defensive solidity may be tested by Como's dynamic offense. Expect a tactical battle where Como's pressing and offensive efficiency could unlock Cagliari's compact block.

  • Como's superior quality and recent wins suggest control.
  • Cagliari's home edge is limited, facing a tough defensive challenge.
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured buildup over frantic transitions.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 1.69 ✓ Cashed
AI 64% Implied 59% +0.69u
+69%
ROI on stake

Lineups

CAG 4-3-3 · COM 4-2-3-1
CAG · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · COM 1 Caprile 32 Pedro 22 Dossena 15 Rodríguez 33 Obert 8 Adopo
27 Liteta
25 Sulemana 2 Palestra 90 Folorunsho 94 Esposito ⚽ 1 Butez 77 Brempt 14 Ramón 2 Kempf 18 Moreno 23 Perrone 33 Cunha ⚽ 10 Paz 20 Baturina ⚽ 17 Rodriguez 11 Douvikas
Subs used · CAG
73' Zappa ↑ · Pedro ↓
78' Idrissi ↑ · Rodriguez ↓
78' Kilicsoy ↑ · Liteta ↓
78' Trepy ↑ · Esposito ↓
88' Pavoletti ↑
Subs used · COM
36' Vojvoda ↑ · Perrone ↓
62' Morata ↑ · Douvikas ↓
80' Carlos ↑ · Paz ↓
81' Valle ↑ · Moreno ↓
81' Roberto ↑ · Baturina ↓

Statistics

CAG 1 – 2 COM
43%
Possession (%)
57%
0.47
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.55
8
Total Shots
8
3
Shots on Target
2
1
Shots off Target
3
4
Shots Inside Box
4
2
Corner Kicks
3
7
Offsides
2
17
Fouls
18
77%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

17 · 1 – 2
14'
⚽
M. Baturina
0–1
36'
⇄
M. Vojvoda ↓ · M. Perrone ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 0 – 1
S. Esposito
Assist · A. Obert · 1–1
⚽
56'
62'
⇄
A. Morata ↓ · A. Douvikas ↑
Substitution 2
Marco Palestra
Yellow Card
▮
65'
Sebastiano Esposito
Yellow Card
▮
71'
G. Zappa ↓ · J. Pedro ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
73'
76'
⚽
L. Da Cunha
Assist · I. Van der Brempt · 1–2
R. Idrissi ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
78'
S. Kilicsoy ↓ · J. Liteta ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
78'
Y. Trepy ↓ · S. Esposito ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
78'
80'
⇄
Diego Carlos ↓ · N. Paz ↑
Substitution 3
81'
⇄
A. Valle ↓ · A. Moreno ↑
Substitution 4
81'
⇄
S. Roberto ↓ · M. Baturina ↑
Substitution 5
83'
▮
Jacobo Ramón
Yellow Card
L. Pavoletti ↓ ·
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
Alberto Dossena
Yellow Card
▮
89'
Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Como won 2–1 away at Cagliari. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Baturina (14'), S. Esposito (56'), L. Da Cunha (76').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.97 units (Brier 0.119).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 1.69 — 64% Cashed +0.69 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.85 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.81 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.10 — 44% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.06 — 45% Cashed +1.06 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 2.34 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.19 — 87% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.26 — 64% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.45 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.30 — 77% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.00 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 90% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.36 — 70% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Draw 4.14 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.75 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 5.75 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 4.15 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.97u −29% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
CAG – COM @ 1.69
+8.9%
Edge
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