Match Inter vs Genoa February 28, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.78 — +10.5% better than the market.

Inter hosts Genoa with a clear quality edge and home momentum after recent wins. Their potent attack faces a Genoa defense that has struggled, suggesting Inter’s pressing and set-piece threat could dominate. Genoa’s patchy form and lower offensive output may leave them exposed in this high-tempo clash, where goals seem likely given the attacking mismatch and Inter’s home confidence.

Inter’s strong home edge and attacking firepower
Genoa’s defensive vulnerabilities against top opponents
Recent form favors Inter’s momentum and goal threat

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.78 ✗ Lost

AI 62% Implied 56% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

INT 3-5-2 · GEN 3-4-2-1

INT · 3-5-2 3-4-2-1 · GEN

9 Thuram

Subs used · INT

59'

Calhanoglu ↑ ·

Mkhitaryan ↓

59'

Esposito ↑ ·

Thuram ↓

66'

Bisseck ↑ ·

de Vrij ↓

76'

Frattesi ↑ ·

Zielinski ↓

76'

Diouf ↑ ·

Bonny ↓

Subs used · GEN

46'

Amorim ↑ ·

Malinovskyi ↓

60'

Ekuban ↑ ·

Vitinha ↓

66'

Messias ↑ ·

Baldanzi ↓

66'

Ekhator ↑ ·

Colombo ↓

85'

Sabelli ↑ ·

Martin ↓

📊 Statistics

INT 2 – 0 GEN

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.54

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.21

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 0

▮

Ruslan Malinovskyi

Yellow Card

Henrikh Mkhitaryan

Yellow Card

▮

21'

F. Dimarco

Assist · H. Mkhitaryan · 1–0

⚽

31'

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

Amorim ↓ · R. Malinovskyi ↑

Substitution 1

H. Calhanoglu ↓ · H. Mkhitaryan ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

F. Esposito ↓ · M. Thuram ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

60'

⇄

C. Ekuban ↓ · Vitinha ↑

Substitution 2

Hakan Çalhanoğlu

Yellow Card

▮

65'

Y. Bisseck ↓ · S. de Vrij ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

66'

⇄

Junior Messias ↓ · T. Baldanzi ↑

Substitution 3

66'

⇄

J. Ekhator ↓ · L. Colombo ↑

Substitution 4

H. Calhanoglu (P)

Penalty · 2–0

⚽

70'

D. Frattesi ↓ · P. Zielinski ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

A. Diouf ↓ · A. Bonny ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

76'

85'

⇄

S. Sabelli ↓ · A. Martin ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Inter beat Genoa 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.54 to 0.21. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 6, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Dimarco (31'), H. Calhanoglu (70').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.81 units (Brier 0.114).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.78	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.26	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.20	—	38%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
BTTS No	1.70	—	48%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.88	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.36	—	75%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.07	—	93%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.47	—	59%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.10	—	75%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.24	—	82%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Draw	5.52	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	95%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.68	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.40	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	11.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.80	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.81u	−34% ROI