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Home › Italy › Serie A › Udinese — Fiorentina

Udinese vs Fiorentina 3:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Udinese
Udinese
Home · last 5 D W W L L
Kick-off
Mon 02 Mar · 19:45
3:0
Full-time
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
D L D W D Away · last 5
Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli · Udine Referee Luca Pairetto, Italy
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 46% · book 2.43 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 50% · book 2.06 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.86 ✗
Total goals
3
3 · 0
xG (open play)
1.65 – 0.66
Δ +0.99
Possession
35% – 65%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 2.43 — +11.2% better than the market.

Udinese hosts Fiorentina in a Serie A clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and better recent form. Fiorentina's sharper attack faces a resilient Udinese defense, suggesting a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. Home momentum is visible but tempered by Udinese's defensive solidity and Fiorentina's ability to press effectively. The odds hint at a balanced pace, likely producing a tight contest with few goals.

  • Fiorentina's offensive edge against Udinese's defense
  • Udinese's home defensive resilience
  • Close recent form and moderate tempo expected

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 2.43 ✗ Lost
AI 46% Implied 41% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

UDI 3-5-2 · FIO 3-5-1-1
UDI · 3-5-2 3-5-1-1 · FIO 40 Okoye 31 Kristensen 27 Kabasele ⚽ 13 Bertola 19 Ehizibue 24 Piotrowski 8 Karlström 32 Ekkelenkamp 33 Zemura 10 Zaniolo 9 Davis ⚽ 43 Gea 5 Pongračić 3 Rugani 6 Ranieri 17 Harrison 8 Mandragora 44 Fagioli 4 Brescianini 65 Parisi 10 Guðmundsson 20 Kean
Subs used · UDI
68' Buksa ↑ · Davis ↓
73' Zarraga ↑ · Piotrowski ↓
73' Kamara ↑ · Zemura ↓
73' Mlacic ↑ · Bertola ↓
87' Miller ↑ · Zaniolo ↓
Subs used · FIO
46' Comuzzo ↑ · Pongracic ↓
46' Ndour ↑ · Brescianini ↓
71' Fabbian ↑ · Mandragora ↓
71' Piccoli ↑ · Kean ↓
87' Fazzini ↑ · Fagioli ↓

Statistics

UDI 3 – 0 FIO
35%
Possession (%)
65%
1.65
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.66
10
Total Shots
10
7
Shots on Target
0
1
Shots off Target
6
8
Shots Inside Box
5
5
Corner Kicks
2
16
Fouls
12
78%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
1
Yellow Cards
4
0
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

18 · 3 – 0
C. Kabasele
Assist · N. Zaniolo · 1–0
⚽
10'
28'
▮
Marin Pongračić
Yellow Card
Kingsley Ehizibue
Yellow Card
▮
32'
32'
▮
Fabiano Parisi
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
P. Comuzzo ↓ · M. Pongracic ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
C. Ndour ↓ · M. Brescianini ↑
Substitution 2
61'
▮
Daniele Rugani
Yellow Card
K. Davis (P)
Penalty · 2–0
⚽
64'
A. Buksa ↓ · K. Davis ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
68'
71'
⇄
G. Fabbian ↓ · R. Mandragora ↑
Substitution 3
71'
⇄
R. Piccoli ↓ · M. Kean ↑
Substitution 4
O. Zarraga ↓ · J. Piotrowski ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
73'
H. Kamara ↓ · J. Zemura ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
73'
B. Mlacic ↓ · N. Bertola ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
73'
80'
▮
Luca Ranieri
Yellow Card
L. Miller ↓ · N. Zaniolo ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
87'
⇄
J. Fazzini ↓ · N. Fagioli ↑
Substitution 5
A. Buksa
Assist · L. Miller · 3–0
⚽
90'
Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Udinese beat Fiorentina 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.65 to 0.66. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: C. Kabasele (10'), K. Davis (64'), A. Buksa (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.95 units (Brier 0.216).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.43 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.06 — 50% Cashed +1.06 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.86 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.09 — 45% Cashed +1.09 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.82 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.63 — 54% Cashed +0.63 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.73 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.29 — 28% Cashed +1.29 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.39 — 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.47 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.31 — 76% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.08 — 90% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.00 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.34 — 71% Cashed +0.34 Cashed
Home Win 3.25 — 28% Cashed +2.25 Cashed
Draw 3.45 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.65 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.95u −11% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
UDI – FIO @ 2.43
+11.2%
Edge
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