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Home › Italy › Serie A › AC Milan — Parma

Predictions by Market: AC Milan vs Parma

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AC Milan
AC Milan
Home · last 5 D L L W L
Kick-off
Sun 22 Feb · 17:00
0:1
Full-time
Parma
Parma
W L L L W Away · last 5
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza · Milan Referee Marco Piccinini, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MIL
75%
Best 1.36
Draw
18%
Best 4.93
Away Win · PAR
6%
Best 8.90
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 4.10
Fair odds
3.96
book 4.10 · +3.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 25% · EV +3.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (75%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 75.2%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 18.4%
Odds 5.51
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 6.4%
Odds 11.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 49.6%
Odds 2.08
Show model details
Implied probability 48.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 50.4%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 28.8%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 25.3%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 7.4%
Odds 13.30
Show model details
Implied probability 7.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.6%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 74.8%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 42.5%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 57.6%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 75.2%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 6.4%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.6%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 24.8%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
MIL – PAR @ 4.10
+3.5%
Edge
Forecast →