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Home › England › Premier League › Arsenal — Aston Villa

Predictions by Market: Arsenal vs Aston Villa

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Arsenal
Arsenal
Home · last 5 W W W W W
Kick-off
Tue 30 Dec · 20:15
4:1
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L L D W W Away · last 5
Emirates Stadium · London Referee Darren England, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ARS
71%
Best 1.39
Draw
21%
Best 5.08
Away Win · AST
9%
Best 8.00
Value pick
BTTS Yes
@ 2.19
Fair odds
2.08
book 2.19 · +5.1% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 48% · EV +5.1%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS No is more likely (52%), but BTTS Yes is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 70.9%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 20.5%
Odds 4.75
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 8.6%
Odds 8.60
Show model details
Implied probability 11.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 52.7%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 47.3%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 30.8%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 76.9%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 69.2%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 23.1%
Odds 3.99
Show model details
Implied probability 25.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 7%
Odds 11.80
Show model details
Implied probability 8.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 48%
Odds 2.19
Show model details
Implied probability 45.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 52%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 70.9%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 8.6%
Odds 5.75
Show model details
Implied probability 17.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 91.4%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 29.1%
Odds 2.96
Show model details
Implied probability 33.8%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
ARS – AST @ 2.19
+5.1%
Edge
Forecast →