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Juventus vs Napoli 3:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Juventus
Juventus
Home · last 5 D D W L D
Kick-off
Sun 25 Jan · 17:00
3:0
Full-time
Napoli
Napoli
W D L W W Away · last 5
Referee Maurizio Mariani, Italy
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 47% · book 2.65 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 54% · book 2.18 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 51% · book 2.23 ✗
Total goals
3
3 · 0
xG (open play)
1.09 – 0.73
Δ +0.36
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.23 — +14.0% better than the market.

Juventus enter this clash with a clear quality edge and strong home momentum, boasting a solid defensive record that could frustrate Napoli's attack. The home side's pressing and set-piece threat complement their recent form, while Napoli's resilience and compact block suggest a tactical battle. Expect a moderately paced game with chances for both, but Juventus' home advantage and sharper offensive edge tilt the balance.

  • Juventus' defensive solidity vs Napoli's attack
  • Home momentum and pressing intensity
  • Balanced pace favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 2.23 ✗ Lost
AI 51% Implied 45% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

JUV 3-4-2-1 · NAP 3-4-2-1
Subs used · JUV
60' Kostic ↑ · Cambiaso ↓
60' Cabal ↑ · Conceicao ↓
76' Miretti ↑ · David ↓
87' Gatti ↑ · Yildiz ↓
87' Koopmeiners ↑ · Locatelli ↓
Subs used · NAP
70' Giovane ↑ · Elmas ↓
74' Beukema ↑ · Gutierrez ↓
79' Lukaku ↑ · Vergara ↓

Statistics

JUV 3 – 0 NAP
42%
Possession (%)
58%
1.09
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.73
12
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
1
3
Shots off Target
4
7
Shots Inside Box
2
2
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
1
21
Fouls
11
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
89%
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

14 · 3 – 0
J. David
Assist · M. Locatelli · 1–0
⚽
22'
34'
▮
Juan Jesus
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
Kenan Yıldız
Yellow Card
▮
56'
F. Kostic ↓ · A. Cambiaso ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
60'
J. Cabal ↓ · F. Conceicao ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
70'
⇄
Giovane ↓ · E. Elmas ↑
Substitution 1
73'
▮
Antonio Vergara
Yellow Card
74'
⇄
S. Beukema ↓ · M. Gutierrez ↑
Substitution 2
F. Miretti ↓ · J. David ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
76'
K. Yildiz
Assist · F. Miretti · 2–0
⚽
77'
79'
⇄
R. Lukaku ↓ · A. Vergara ↑
Substitution 3
F. Kostic
3–0
⚽
86'
F. Gatti ↓ · K. Yildiz ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
87'
T. Koopmeiners ↓ · M. Locatelli ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Juventus beat Napoli 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.09 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. David (22'), K. Yildiz (77'), F. Kostic (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.79 units (Brier 0.131).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.65 — 47% Cashed +1.65 Cashed
Home Win 2.18 — 54% Cashed +1.18 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.23 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.73 — 49% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.77 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 2.62 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.79 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.58 — 72% Cashed +0.58 Cashed
Over 3.5 5.10 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.28 — 82% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.49 — 54% Cashed +0.49 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.52 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.12 — 91% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Draw 3.23 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.18 — 72% Cashed +0.18 Cashed
Away Win 4.15 — 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 7.50 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.79u −22% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
JUV – NAP @ 2.23
+14.0%
Edge
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