Match Sassuolo vs Cremonese January 25, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.76 — +11.9% better than the market.

Sassuolo holds a clear quality edge and a home advantage that could prove decisive despite recent struggles. Their defense is notably stronger than Cremonese's, suggesting a compact block that might frustrate the visitors' attack. Both sides show low recent form, but Sassuolo's home momentum and slightly better offensive matchup hint at a tight, low-scoring game.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive pressure
Recent form favors cautious play
Odds suggest a modest pace with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.76 ✓ Cashed

AI 64% Implied 57% +0.76u

+76%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SAS 4-3-3 · CRE 3-5-2

SAS · 4-3-3 3-5-2 · CRE

45 Laurienté

Subs used · SAS

59'

Berardi ↑ ·

Fadera ↓

59'

Thorstvedt ↑ ·

Lipani ↓

71'

Pierini ↑ ·

Lauriente ↓

71'

Pinamonti ↑ ·

Moro ↓

83'

Iannoni ↑ ·

Kone ↓

Subs used · CRE

23'

Zerbin ↑ ·

Collocolo ↓

46'

Johnsen ↑ ·

Barbieri ↓

67'

Floriani ↑ ·

Grassi ↓

81'

Faye ↑ ·

Bianchetti ↓

81'

Folino ↑ ·

Terracciano ↓

📊 Statistics

SAS 1 – 0 CRE

45%

Possession (%)

55%

1.10

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.59

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 0

A. Fadera

1–0

⚽

23'

⇄

A. Zerbin ↓ · M. Collocolo ↑

Substitution 1

32'

▮

Tommaso Barbieri

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

D. Johnsen ↓ · T. Barbieri ↑

Substitution 2

D. Berardi ↓ · A. Fadera ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

K. Thorstvedt ↓ · L. Lipani ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

Armand Laurienté

Yellow Card

▮

64'

67'

⇄

R. Floriani ↓ · A. Grassi ↑

Substitution 3

N. Pierini ↓ · A. Lauriente ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

A. Pinamonti ↓ · L. Moro ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

71'

74'

▮

Giuseppe Pezzella

Yellow Card

81'

⇄

M. Faye ↓ · M. Bianchetti ↑

Substitution 4

81'

⇄

F. Folino ↓ · F. Terracciano ↑

Substitution 5

E. Iannoni ↓ · I. Kone ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Sassuolo beat Cremonese 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.10 to 0.59. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Fadera (3').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.15 units (Brier 0.130).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.76	—	64%	Cashed	+0.76	Cashed
BTTS No	1.91	—	58%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Home Win	1.98	—	57%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.97	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.92	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.24	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.20	—	37%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.27	—	82%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.24	—	83%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.40	—	57%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	87%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.46	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.14	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.50	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.10	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.15u	−19% ROI