Bologna vs Fiorentina 1:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.35 — +6.7% better than the market.

Bologna Looks to Leverage Home Strength

Bologna holds a clear quality edge and a notable home advantage, suggesting they can impose their game at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Their offensive edge against Fiorentina's defense and recent home momentum could pressure Fiorentina's compact block. Fiorentina's resilience and slightly better recent form hint at a balanced contest, but Bologna's pressing edge and set-piece threat may tilt the scales.

Bologna's home form and offensive edge
Fiorentina's defensive resilience
Moderate pace expected with balanced goal chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.35 ✗ Lost

AI 79% Implied 74% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

BOL 4-2-3-1 · FIO 4-3-3

BOL · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · FIO

9 Castro

Subs used · BOL

46'

Moro ↑ ·

Freuler ↓

46'

Rowe ↑ ·

Orsolini ↓

46'

Zortea ↑ ·

Holm ↓

46'

Fabbian ↑ ·

Odgaard ↓

72'

Ferguson ↑ ·

Pobega ↓

Subs used · FIO

72'

Brescianini ↑ ·

Mandragora ↓

72'

Sohm ↑ ·

Ndour ↓

72'

Solomon ↑ ·

Gudmundsson ↓

80'

Fortini ↑ ·

Parisi ↓

90+4'

Ranieri ↑ ·

Fagioli ↓

Statistics

BOL 1 – 2 FIO

61%

Possession (%)

39%

1.27

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.64

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

16 · 1 – 2

19'

⚽

R. Mandragora

Assist · A. Gudmundsson · 0–1

Emil Holm

Yellow Card

▮

38'

45'

⚽

R. Piccoli

0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

N. Moro ↓ · R. Freuler ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

J. Rowe ↓ · R. Orsolini ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

N. Zortea ↓ · E. Holm ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

46'

G. Fabbian ↓ · J. Odgaard ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

46'

L. Ferguson ↓ · T. Pobega ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

72'

⇄

M. Brescianini ↓ · R. Mandragora ↑

Substitution 1

72'

⇄

S. Sohm ↓ · C. Ndour ↑

Substitution 2

72'

⇄

M. Solomon ↓ · A. Gudmundsson ↑

Substitution 3

Juan Miranda

Yellow Card

▮

77'

80'

⇄

N. Fortini ↓ · F. Parisi ↑

Substitution 4

G. Fabbian

Assist · J. Rowe · 1–2

⚽

88'

Lewis Ferguson

Yellow Card

▮

90'

90+4'

⇄

L. Ranieri ↓ · N. Fagioli ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Fiorentina won 2–1 away at Bologna. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 11, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Mandragora (19'), R. Piccoli (45'), G. Fabbian (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.62 units (Brier 0.237).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.27	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.07	—	49%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.92	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.07	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.82	—	53%	Cashed	+0.82	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.60	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.72	—	48%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.48	—	21%	Cashed	+1.48	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.35	—	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.80	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	92%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.33	—	74%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.34	—	73%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.54	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.46	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.55	—	21%	Cashed	+2.55	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.62u	−10% ROI

Bologna vs Fiorentina 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

Bologna Looks to Leverage Home Strength

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled