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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lazio — Como

Lazio vs Como 0:3: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 D W L L W
Kick-off
Mon 19 Jan · 19:45
0:3
Full-time
Como
Como
W D W W W Away · last 5
Referee Michael Fabbri, Italy
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 42% · book 2.45 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 1.92 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.65 ✗
Total goals
3
0 · 3
xG (open play)
0.27 – 1.83
Δ −1.56
Possession
34% – 66%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.49 — +7.8% better than the market.

Lazio hosts Como in a Serie A clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, backed by a stronger recent form and offensive threat. Lazio's defensive solidity might be tested by Como's sharper attack, suggesting a tactical battle with Como pressing to exploit gaps. Home momentum is moderate, but Lazio's compact block could limit Como's chances.

  • Como's attacking edge challenges Lazio's defense
  • Lazio's home setup aims to control tempo
  • Recent form favors Como's confidence

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.49 ✓ Cashed
AI 72% Implied 67% +0.49u
+49%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LAZ 4-3-3 · COM 4-3-2-1
LAZ · 4-3-3 4-3-2-1 · COM 94 Provedel 77 Marušić 34 Fuentes 13 Romagnoli 3 Pellegrini 21 Belahyane 32 Cataldi 24 Taylor 22 Cancellieri 20 Ratkov 10 Zaccagni 1 Butez 28 Smolčić 14 Ramón 34 Carlos 3 Valle 23 Perrone 33 Cunha 6 Caqueret 17 Rodriguez 10 Paz ⚽ 20 Baturina ⚽
Subs used · LAZ
53' Rovella ↑ · Cataldi ↓
53' Noslin ↑ · Ratkov ↓
53' Isaksen ↑ · Cancellieri ↓
64' Lazzari ↑ · Pellegrini ↓
85' Dele-Bashiru ↑ · Taylor ↓
Subs used · COM
46' Posch ↑ · Smolcic ↓
65' Roberto ↑ · Caqueret ↓
74' Vojvoda ↑ · Baturina ↓
81' Douvikas ↑ · Paz ↓
81' Kuhn ↑ · Rodriguez ↓

Statistics

LAZ 0 – 3 COM
34%
Possession (%)
66%
0.27
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.83
8
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
6
3
Shots off Target
3
2
Shots Inside Box
9
3
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
0
14
Fouls
9
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
92%
4
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

20 · 0 – 3
2'
⚽
M. Baturina
Assist · A. Valle · 0–1
Mattia Zaccagni
Yellow Card
▮
21'
22'
▮
Ivan Smolčić
Yellow Card
24'
⚽
N. Paz
Assist · M. Caqueret · 0–2
Alessio Romagnoli
Yellow Card
▮
42'
Danilo Cataldi
Yellow Card
▮
44'
Half-time · 0 – 2
46'
⇄
S. Posch ↓ · I. Smolcic ↑
Substitution 1
49'
⚽
N. Paz
Assist · M. Baturina · 0–3
N. Rovella ↓ · D. Cataldi ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
53'
T. Noslin ↓ · P. Ratkov ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
53'
G. Isaksen ↓ · M. Cancellieri ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
53'
Luca Pellegrini
Yellow Card
▮
58'
M. Lazzari ↓ · L. Pellegrini ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
64'
65'
⇄
S. Roberto ↓ · M. Caqueret ↑
Substitution 2
74'
⇄
M. Vojvoda ↓ · M. Baturina ↑
Substitution 3
75'
▮
Stefan Posch
Yellow Card
81'
⇄
A. Douvikas ↓ · N. Paz ↑
Substitution 4
81'
⇄
N. Kuhn ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 5
F. Dele-Bashiru ↓ · K. Taylor ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
89'
▮
Álex Valle
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 3

Match recap

Como won 3–0 away at Lazio. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 66% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.83 to 0.27. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Baturina (2'), N. Paz (24'), N. Paz (49').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.30 units (Brier 0.165).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.45 — 42% Cashed +1.45 Cashed
BTTS No 1.92 — 52% Cashed +0.92 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.65 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.97 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.02 — 42% Cashed +1.02 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.92 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.49 — 72% Cashed +0.49 Cashed
Away Win 3.02 — 42% Cashed +2.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.45 — 68% Cashed +0.45 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.94 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.04 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.44 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.85 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.60 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.11 — 89% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.24 — 78% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.00 — 11% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.30u −14% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
LAZ – COM @ 1.49
+7.8%
Edge
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