Match Inter vs Napoli January 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.96 — +11.7% better than the market.

Inter arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a clear quality edge and a potent attack against Napoli's defense. Their recent form shows consistent wins, while Napoli struggles for consistency on the road. Expect Inter's pressing and set-piece threat to challenge Napoli's compact block.

Home advantage with a solid defensive base
Inter's attack likely to exploit Napoli's defensive gaps
Moderate pace suggested by balanced goal odds, favoring tactical control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.96 ✓ Cashed

AI 57% Implied 51% +0.96u

+96%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

INT 3-5-2 · NAP 3-4-2-1

INT · 3-5-2 3-4-2-1 · NAP

10 Martínez

Subs used · INT

62'

Mkhitaryan ↑ ·

Zielinski ↓

83'

Esposito ↑ ·

Thuram ↓

88'

Sucic ↑ ·

Calhanoglu ↓

88'

Bonny ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

88'

Augusto ↑ ·

Dimarco ↓

Subs used · NAP

78'

Lang ↑ ·

Beukema ↓

90+4'

Mazzocchi ↑ ·

Politano ↓

📊 Statistics

INT 2 – 2 NAP

50%

Possession (%)

50%

1.45

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.74

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 2 – 2

F. Dimarco

Assist · M. Thuram · 1–0

⚽

26'

⚽

S. McTominay

Assist · E. Elmas · 1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

H. Mkhitaryan ↓ · P. Zielinski ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

62'

H. Calhanoglu (P)

Penalty · 2–1

⚽

73'

78'

⇄

N. Lang ↓ · S. Beukema ↑

Substitution 1

81'

⚽

S. McTominay

Assist · N. Lang · 2–2

F. Esposito ↓ · M. Thuram ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

83'

P. Sucic ↓ · H. Calhanoglu ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

88'

A. Bonny ↓ · L. Martinez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

Carlos Augusto ↓ · F. Dimarco ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

90+2'

▮

Juan Jesus

Yellow Card

90+4'

⇄

P. Mazzocchi ↓ · M. Politano ↑

Substitution 2

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Inter and Napoli drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.45 to 0.74. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 7, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1.

On the scoresheet: F. Dimarco (9'), S. McTominay (26'), H. Calhanoglu (73'), S. McTominay (81').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.32 units (Brier 0.199).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.10	—	57%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.96	—	57%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Home Win	1.83	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.13	—	39%	Cashed	+1.13	Cashed
BTTS No	1.91	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.87	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.80	—	36%	Cashed	+2.80	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.34	—	80%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.21	—	86%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.30	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	93%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	3.70	—	25%	Cashed	+2.70	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.32	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.10	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.50	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.73	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.32u	+2% ROI