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Home › World › Friendlies › USA — Mexico

USA vs Mexico 3:0: Match Review & Stats

World   /   Friendlies Value pick inside
USA
USA
Home · last 5 L W W W W
Kick-off
Sun 04 Oct · 02:00
3:0
Full-time
Mexico
Mexico
W D D L L Away · last 5
Referee Selvin Brown, Honduras
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 59% · book 1.98 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 2.15 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 31% · book 2.59 ✓
Total goals
3
3 · 0
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
6 / 13
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.56 — +8.1% better than the market.

Mexico enters this friendly with a clear quality edge and stronger recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their defensive solidity contrasts with USA's more balanced attack and defense, hinting at a tactical battle where Mexico's compact block could frustrate the hosts. The home side's slight pressing edge and set-piece threat may create chances, but expect a cautious tempo with under 2.5 goals likely.

  • Mexico's defensive resilience vs USA's offense
  • Home momentum but limited attacking gap
  • Moderate pace favors a tight contest

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.56 ✗ Lost
AI 69% Implied 64% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

USA 3 – 0 MEX
49%
Possession (%)
51%
8
Total Shots
6
4
Shots on Target
1
2
Shots off Target
4
6
Shots Inside Box
3
2
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
4
18
Fouls
9
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
2
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match recap

USA beat Mexico 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 6 landed and 7 missed, for a net -2.27 units (Brier 0.219).

Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 6 W · 7 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.98 — 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.15 — 54% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
Home Win 2.59 — 31% Cashed +1.59 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.94 — 41% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.67 — 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.56 — 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.91 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.80 — 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.33 — 81% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.47 — 57% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Draw 3.50 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.25 — 65% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.25 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each — — — 6 W · 7 L −2.27u −17% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
USA – MEX @ 1.56
+8.1%
Edge
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