Lazio vs Fiorentina 2:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.38 — +3.4% better than the market.

Lazio holds a slight quality edge and better recent form, suggesting home momentum could be key. Their compact defense contrasts with Fiorentina's potent attack, setting up an intriguing tactical battle. Expect a moderately paced game with chances on both ends, but Lazio's home resilience and Fiorentina's pressing threat may balance out.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive flair
Recent form favors Lazio's consistency
Moderate tempo hints at balanced chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.38 ✓ Cashed

AI 75% Implied 72% +0.38u

+38%

ROI on stake

Lineups

LAZ 4-3-3 · FIO 4-3-3

LAZ · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · FIO

10 Zaccagni

Subs used · LAZ

29'

Vecino ↑ ·

Basic ↓

72'

Pedro ↑ ·

Isaksen ↓

80'

Hysaj ↑ ·

Lazzari ↓

Subs used · FIO

60'

Kean ↑ ·

Piccoli ↓

68'

Solomon ↑ ·

Ndour ↓

69'

Ranieri ↑ ·

Gosens ↓

90+2'

Nicolussi Caviglia ↑ ·

Parisi ↓

90+2'

Mari ↑ ·

Gudmundsson ↓

Statistics

LAZ 2 – 2 FIO

49%

Possession (%)

51%

2.74

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.64

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

20 · 2 – 2

20'

▮

Marin Pongračić

Yellow Card

21'

▮

Robin Gosens

Yellow Card

Matteo Cancellieri

Yellow Card

▮

26'

M. Vecino ↓ · T. Basic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

29'

Half-time · 0 – 0

D. Cataldi

Assist · M. Vecino · 1–0

⚽

52'

55'

▮

Fabiano Parisi

Yellow Card

56'

⚽

R. Gosens

Assist · N. Fagioli · 1–1

60'

⇄

M. Kean ↓ · R. Piccoli ↑

Substitution 1

68'

⇄

M. Solomon ↓ · C. Ndour ↑

Substitution 2

69'

⇄

L. Ranieri ↓ · R. Gosens ↑

Substitution 3

71'

▮

Nicolò Fagioli

Yellow Card

Pedro ↓ · G. Isaksen ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

E. Hysaj ↓ · M. Lazzari ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

Mattia Zaccagni

Yellow Card

▮

83'

89'

⚽

A. Gudmundsson (P)

Penalty · 1–2

Luca Pellegrini

Yellow Card

▮

90'

Pedro (P)

Penalty · 2–2

⚽

90'

90+2'

⇄

H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↓ · F. Parisi ↑

Substitution 4

90+2'

⇄

P. Mari ↓ · A. Gudmundsson ↑

Substitution 5

90+8'

▮

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Lazio and Fiorentina drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.74 to 1.64. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 8, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Cataldi (52'), R. Gosens (56'), A. Gudmundsson (89'), Pedro (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.25 units (Brier 0.238).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.51	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.91	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.71	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.35	—	42%	Cashed	+1.35	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.96	—	48%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.62	—	53%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.74	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.28	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	75%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.10	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.44	—	68%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Draw	3.20	—	28%	Cashed	+2.20	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	89%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.25	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.20	—	22%	Cashed	+3.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.31	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.25u	+1% ROI

Lazio vs Fiorentina 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled