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Home › Italy › Serie A › Fiorentina — Cremonese

Fiorentina vs Cremonese 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Home · last 5 D L D W D
Kick-off
Sun 04 Jan · 14:00
1:0
Full-time
Cremonese
Cremonese
L L W W L Away · last 5
Referee Federico La Penna, Italy
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 53% · book 2.12 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.87 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 1.94 ✓
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
2.06 – 0.73
Δ +1.33
Possession
65% – 35%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.12 — +12.6% better than the market.

Fiorentina hosts Cremonese in a Serie A clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge. Fiorentina’s home form shows some struggles, while Cremonese’s recent results suggest better momentum. The home side’s stronger attack faces a solid away defense, hinting at a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances. Expect a moderately paced game with a leaning towards defensive solidity and a cautious approach from both teams.

  • Fiorentina’s home edge is mild but present
  • Cremonese’s defensive resilience could stifle attacks
  • Recent form favors Cremonese’s momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 2.12 ✗ Lost
AI 53% Implied 47% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

FIO 4-2-3-1 · CRE 3-5-2
FIO · 4-2-3-1 3-5-2 · CRE 43 Gea 2 Dodô 15 Comuzzo 5 Pongračić 6 Ranieri 8 Mandragora 27 Ndour 65 Parisi 44 Fagioli 10 Guðmundsson 91 Piccoli 1 Audero 24 Terracciano 6 Baschirotto 55 Folino 4 Barbieri 32 Payero 38 Bondo 27 Vandeputte 3 Pezzella 90 Bonazzoli 10 Vardy
Subs used · FIO
66' Solomon ↑ · Parisi ↓
66' Gosens ↑ · Ranieri ↓
76' Fortini ↑ · Ndour ↓
84' Kean ↑ · Gudmundsson ↓
85' Nicolussi Caviglia ↑ · Mandragora ↓
Subs used · CRE
29' Grassi ↑ · Bondo ↓
59' Vazquez ↑ · Vandeputte ↓
75' Zerbin ↑ · Payero ↓
75' Sanabria ↑ · Bonazzoli ↓
76' Moumbagna ↑ · Vardy ↓

Statistics

FIO 1 – 0 CRE
65%
Possession (%)
35%
2.06
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.73
22
Total Shots
6
8
Shots on Target
2
4
Shots off Target
3
13
Shots Inside Box
3
7
Corner Kicks
3
0
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
19
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
71%
1
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match events

14 · 1 – 0
20'
▮
Warren Bondo
Yellow Card
29'
⇄
A. Grassi ↓ · W. Bondo ↑
Substitution 1
Dodô
Yellow Card
▮
42'
42'
▮
Martín Payero
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
59'
⇄
F. Vazquez ↓ · J. Vandeputte ↑
Substitution 2
M. Solomon ↓ · F. Parisi ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
66'
R. Gosens ↓ · L. Ranieri ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
66'
75'
⇄
A. Zerbin ↓ · M. Payero ↑
Substitution 3
75'
⇄
A. Sanabria ↓ · F. Bonazzoli ↑
Substitution 4
N. Fortini ↓ · C. Ndour ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
76'
76'
⇄
F. Moumbagna ↓ · J. Vardy ↑
Substitution 5
M. Kean ↓ · A. Gudmundsson ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↓ · R. Mandragora ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
85'
M. Kean
1–0
⚽
90'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Fiorentina beat Cremonese 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 86% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.06 to 0.73. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 6, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Kean (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.90 units (Brier 0.184).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 2.12 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.87 — 55% Cashed +0.87 Cashed
BTTS No 1.94 — 53% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.10 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.98 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.84 — 47% Cashed +0.84 Cashed
Away Win 5.10 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.21 — 72% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.50 — 29% Cashed +2.50 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.32 — 76% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.54 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 90% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.34 — 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.75 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.90 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.35 — 47% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.90u −17% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
FIO – CRE @ 2.12
+12.6%
Edge
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