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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lazio — Napoli

Lazio vs Napoli 0:2: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 D W L L W
Kick-off
Sun 04 Jan · 11:30
0:2
Full-time
Napoli
Napoli
W D L W W Away · last 5
Referee Davide Massa, Italy
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 50% · book 2.42 ✓
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 43% · book 2.66 ✗
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 47% · book 2.16 ✗
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
0.36 – 1.68
Δ −1.32
Possession
35% – 65%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.66 — +13.7% better than the market.

Napoli enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a stronger offensive profile, despite recent mixed form. Lazio’s home defensive solidity could keep things tight, but Napoli’s sharper attack and recent momentum suggest they’ll press for control. The match hints at a balanced pace with moderate goal potential, favoring an away side looking to capitalize on their attacking superiority.

  • Lazio’s compact defense may limit chances
  • Napoli’s attacking edge likely to create pressure
  • Recent form favors Napoli’s momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 2.66 ✗ Lost
AI 43% Implied 38% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LAZ 4-3-3 · NAP 3-4-2-1
LAZ · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · NAP 94 Provedel 77 Marušić 34 Fuentes 13 Romagnoli 3 Pellegrini 8 Guendouzi 32 Cataldi 26 Bašić 22 Cancellieri 14 Noslin 10 Zaccagni 32 Milinković-Savić 22 Lorenzo 13 Rrahmani ⚽ 5 Jesus 21 Politano 8 McTominay 68 Lobotka 37 Spinazzola ⚽ 7 Neres 20 Elmas 19 Højlund
Subs used · LAZ
62' Lazzari ↑ · Pellegrini ↓
71' Isaksen ↑ · Cancellieri ↓
71' Belahyane ↑ · Cataldi ↓
87' Pedro ↑ · Zaccagni ↓
Subs used · NAP
69' Mazzocchi ↑ · Neres ↓
78' Gutierrez ↑ · Spinazzola ↓
79' Buongiorno ↑ · Rrahmani ↓
86' Ambrosino ↑ · Elmas ↓
86' Lang ↑ · Hojlund ↓

Statistics

LAZ 0 – 2 NAP
35%
Possession (%)
65%
0.36
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.68
5
Total Shots
14
0
Shots on Target
3
3
Shots off Target
8
5
Shots Inside Box
11
2
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
13
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
92%
5
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

20 · 0 – 2
13'
⚽
L. Spinazzola
Assist · M. Politano · 0–1
32'
⚽
A. Rrahmani
Assist · M. Politano · 0–2
Mattia Zaccagni
Yellow Card
▮
43'
Half-time · 0 – 2
M. Lazzari ↓ · L. Pellegrini ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
62'
Danilo Cataldi
Yellow Card
▮
64'
Tijjani Noslin
Yellow Card
▮
69'
69'
▮
Amir Rrahmani
Yellow Card
69'
⇄
P. Mazzocchi ↓ · David Neres ↑
Substitution 1
G. Isaksen ↓ · M. Cancellieri ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
71'
R. Belahyane ↓ · D. Cataldi ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
71'
78'
⇄
M. Gutierrez ↓ · L. Spinazzola ↑
Substitution 2
79'
⇄
A. Buongiorno ↓ · A. Rrahmani ↑
Substitution 3
Tijjani Noslin
Yellow Card
▮
81'
Tijjani Noslin
Red Card
▮
81'
Alessio Romagnoli
Yellow Card
▮
82'
86'
⇄
G. Ambrosino ↓ · E. Elmas ↑
Substitution 4
86'
⇄
N. Lang ↓ · R. Hojlund ↑
Substitution 5
Adam Marušić
Red Card
▮
87'
87'
▮
Pasquale Mazzocchi
Red Card
Pedro ↓ · M. Zaccagni ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
87'
Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Napoli won 2–0 away at Lazio. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 65% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.68 to 0.36. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 5, 3 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Spinazzola (13'), A. Rrahmani (32'). Tijjani Noslin was sent off in the 81' minute. Adam Marušić was sent off in the 87' minute. Pasquale Mazzocchi was sent off in the 87' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.40 units (Brier 0.123).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.42 — 50% Cashed +1.42 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.66 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.16 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.74 — 53% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.67 — 50% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.63 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.64 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.41 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.53 — 68% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.35 — 79% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Over 3.5 5.30 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.15 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.58 — 57% Cashed +0.58 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.12 — 90% Cashed +0.12 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.19 — 78% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
Under 0.5 8.00 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.60 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.40u −26% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
LAZ – NAP @ 2.66
+13.7%
Edge
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