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Home › Italy › Serie A › Fiorentina — Udinese

Fiorentina vs Udinese 5:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Home · last 5 D L D W D
Kick-off
Sun 21 Dec · 17:00
5:1
Full-time
Udinese
Udinese
D W W L L Away · last 5
Referee Maurizio Mariani, Italy
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 64% · book 1.71 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.80 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 51% · book 1.97 ✗
Total goals
6
5 · 1
xG (open play)
3.12 – 0.65
Δ +2.47
Possession
63% – 37%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.71 — +9.2% better than the market.

Udinese enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Fiorentina's defensive solidity is notable, but their recent home struggles and limited offensive threat may leave them vulnerable to Udinese's disciplined backline and counter-attacks. The pace looks moderate, favoring a tactical battle with few high-scoring chances.

  • Udinese's stronger overall quality and form advantage
  • Fiorentina's defensive resilience but home offensive struggles
  • Moderate tempo likely leading to a compact, tactical game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.71 ✗ Lost
AI 64% Implied 58% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

FIO 4-4-2 · UDI 3-4-2-1
FIO · 4-4-2 3-4-2-1 · UDI 43 Gea 2 Dodô 15 Comuzzo 5 Pongračić 6 Ranieri 65 Parisi 8 Mandragora ⚽ 44 Fagioli 27 Ndour ⚽ 20 Kean ⚽ 10 Guðmundsson ⚽ 40 Okoye 31 Kristensen 27 Kabasele 28 Solet ⚽ 59 Zanoli 8 Karlström 24 Piotrowski 13 Bertola 10 Zaniolo 32 Ekkelenkamp 9 Davis
Subs used · FIO
53' Fortini ↑ · Mandragora ↓
71' Piccoli ↑ · Kean ↓
71' Kouame ↑ · Parisi ↓
82' Viti ↑ · Comuzzo ↓
82' Nicolussi Caviglia ↑ · Fagioli ↓
Subs used · UDI
10' Sava ↑ · Kabasele ↓
46' Lovric ↑ · Zaniolo ↓
46' Kamara ↑ · Zanoli ↓
65' Buksa ↑ · Davis ↓
66' Gueye ↑ · Ekkelenkamp ↓

Statistics

FIO 5 – 1 UDI
63%
Possession (%)
37%
3.12
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.65
20
Total Shots
11
7
Shots on Target
4
10
Shots off Target
5
11
Shots Inside Box
8
1
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
2
10
Fouls
8
90%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
3
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

21 · 5 – 1
7'
▮
Maduka Okoye
Red Card
10'
⇄
R. Sava ↓ · C. Kabasele ↑
Substitution 1
R. Mandragora
Assist · N. Fagioli · 1–0
⚽
21'
39'
▮
Alessandro Zanoli
Yellow Card
Fabiano Parisi
Yellow Card
▮
40'
A. Gudmundsson
Assist · F. Parisi · 2–0
⚽
42'
C. Ndour
Assist · N. Fagioli · 3–0
⚽
45'
Half-time · 3 – 0
46'
⇄
S. Lovric ↓ · N. Zaniolo ↑
Substitution 2
46'
⇄
H. Kamara ↓ · A. Zanoli ↑
Substitution 3
N. Fortini ↓ · R. Mandragora ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
53'
M. Kean
4–0
⚽
56'
Luca Ranieri
Yellow Card
▮
65'
65'
⇄
A. Buksa ↓ · K. Davis ↑
Substitution 4
66'
⇄
I. Gueye ↓ · J. Ekkelenkamp ↑
Substitution 5
66'
⚽
O. Solet
Assist · J. Piotrowski · 4–1
M. Kean
Assist · Dodo · 5–1
⚽
69'
R. Piccoli ↓ · M. Kean ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
71'
C. Kouame ↓ · F. Parisi ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
71'
M. Viti ↓ · P. Comuzzo ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
82'
H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↓ · N. Fagioli ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
82'
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Yellow Card
▮
85'
Full-time · 5 – 1

Match recap

Fiorentina beat Udinese 5–1 at home. At half-time it was 3–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.12 to 0.65. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 11, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 4 to 1. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 3.12 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Mandragora (21'), A. Gudmundsson (42'), C. Ndour (45'), M. Kean (56'), O. Solet (66'), M. Kean (69'). Maduka Okoye was sent off in the 7' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.87 units (Brier 0.252).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.71 — 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.80 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.97 — 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.23 — 44% Cashed +1.23 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.92 — 49% Cashed +0.92 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.46 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.30 — 36% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.61 — 36% Cashed +0.61 Cashed
Away Win 3.55 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.35 — 63% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.28 — 78% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.23 — 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 — 90% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.39 — 69% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.25 — 22% Cashed +3.25 Cashed
Draw 3.46 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.00 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.87u −5% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
FIO – UDI @ 1.71
+9.2%
Edge
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