Italy vs Türkiye 3:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.75 — +14.6% better than the market.

Italy hosts Türkiye in a UEFA Nations League clash where home momentum and tactical discipline could be decisive. Italy's recent form shows signs of resilience compared to Türkiye's struggles, suggesting a pressing edge for the hosts. The match is likely to be cautious with a compact defensive block from both sides, reflected in odds favoring under 2.5 goals. Expect a tactical battle with Italy leveraging home support and Türkiye aiming to exploit counter-attacks.

Italy's steadier form offers a slight advantage.
Both teams may prioritize defensive solidity.
Lower tempo expected, limiting goal-scoring chances.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.75 ✗ Lost

AI 42% Implied 36% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ITA 4-3-3 · TUR 5-4-1

ITA · 4-3-3 5-4-1 · TUR

17 Maldini

Statistics

ITA 3 – 1 TUR

45%

Possession (%)

55%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Italy beat Türkiye 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 9 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 6 landed and 7 missed, for a net -3.62 units (Brier 0.199).

Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 6 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.60	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.20	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.65	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.75	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	46%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.35	—	31%	Cashed	+1.35	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.50	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	6.25	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.51	—	58%	Cashed	+0.51	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.15	—	79%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.50	—	53%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Draw	5.00	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.14	—	73%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	6 W · 7 L	−3.62u	−28% ROI

Italy vs Türkiye 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled