Azerbaijan vs Lithuania 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.67 — +11.6% better than the market.

This UEFA Nations League clash at Bakcell Arena hints at a cautious encounter. Both teams show modest recent form, but Lithuania's slightly better momentum and higher points per game suggest a subtle edge. Expect a compact game with limited clear-cut chances, as reflected in low expected goals and odds favoring under 2.5 goals.

Azerbaijan's home setup may focus on defensive solidity.
Lithuania's recent wins give them confidence on the break.
Low-scoring, tight midfield battles likely dominate the tempo.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.67 ✓ Cashed

AI 67% Implied 60% +0.67u

+67%

ROI on stake

Lineups

AZE 3-4-3 · LIT 3-4-3

AZE · 3-4-3 3-4-3 · LIT

10 Emreli

18 Məmmədov

Statistics

AZE 1 – 0 LIT

38%

Possession (%)

62%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -3.23 units (Brier 0.138).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 1.5	2.63	—	47%	Cashed	+1.63	Cashed
BTTS No	1.67	—	67%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.65	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.33	—	39%	Cashed	+1.33	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.20	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.62	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	7.50	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.50	—	74%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Away Win	3.34	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.17	—	90%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.36	—	67%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.56	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.32	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.11	—	77%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Over 3.5	5.20	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−3.23u	−22% ROI

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled