Estonia vs Luxembourg 1:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.83 — +13.9% better than the market.

This UEFA Nations League clash at A. Le Coq Arena hints at a cautious encounter. Estonia's recent draws contrast with Luxembourg's momentum from a win and a draw, suggesting a slight edge in form for the visitors. The game is likely to be tight, with both sides showing defensive resilience and limited attacking threat so far.

Home side's compact block may stifle chances
Luxembourg's recent win adds confidence
Odds favor a low-scoring, controlled pace

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.83 ✓ Cashed

AI 62% Implied 55% +0.83u

+83%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 3-5-1-1 · LUX 4-1-4-1

EST · 3-5-1-1 4-1-4-1 · LUX

17 Männilaan

6 de Sousa Moreira Cruz

15 Natami

11 Thill

8 de Pina Duarte dos Santos

7 Dardari

9 Pereira

Statistics

EST 1 – 0 LUX

46%

Possession (%)

54%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Estonia beat Luxembourg 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 8, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.98 units (Brier 0.170).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 1.5	2.70	—	45%	Cashed	+1.70	Cashed
BTTS No	1.83	—	62%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
Away Win	2.61	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.50	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.58	—	71%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.40	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.53	—	60%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.20	—	88%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Home Win	3.10	—	30%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Draw	3.10	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.44	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	80%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 3.5	5.00	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−1.98u	−13% ROI

Estonia vs Luxembourg 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled