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Home › World › UEFA Nations League › Iceland — Bulgaria

Iceland vs Bulgaria 3:0: Match Review & Stats

World   /   UEFA Nations League Value pick inside
Iceland
Iceland
Home · last 5 D W W D
Kick-off
Sat 03 Oct · 16:00
3:0
Full-time
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
L D L W Away · last 5
Referee Balazs Berke
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 63% · book 1.75 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 2.04 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 42% · book 1.85 ✓
Total goals
3
3 · 0
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
6 / 13
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.86 — +11.6% better than the market.

Iceland shows a slight home momentum with a recent win and draw, contrasting Bulgaria's mixed form. The match hints at a cautious tempo, supported by odds favoring under 2.5 goals and a high chance of no goals from both sides. Iceland's home edge and better recent points per game suggest they may control the game, but Bulgaria's resilience could keep it tight.

  • Home momentum with solid recent results
  • Low-scoring expectation with defensive compactness
  • Balanced tactical battle likely to limit chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 2.86 ✗ Lost
AI 39% Implied 35% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

ICE 3 – 0 BUL
51%
Possession (%)
49%
10
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Target
3
2
Shots off Target
6
7
Shots Inside Box
7
9
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
4
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match recap

Iceland beat Bulgaria 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 6 landed and 7 missed, for a net -4.19 units (Brier 0.129).

Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 6 W · 7 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.75 — 63% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.04 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.85 — 42% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.00 — 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.40 — 79% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.86 — 39% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 7.95 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.80 — 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.46 — 61% Cashed +0.46 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.10 — 83% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.10 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.55 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.25 — 65% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each — — — 6 W · 7 L −4.19u −32% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
ICE – BUL @ 2.86
+11.6%
Edge
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