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Home › England › Premier League › Chelsea — Aston Villa

Predictions by Market: Chelsea vs Aston Villa

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Chelsea
Chelsea
Home · last 5 L L D W L
Kick-off
Sat 27 Dec · 17:30
1:2
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L L D W W Away · last 5
Stamford Bridge · London Referee Stuart Attwell, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · CHE
49%
Best 1.80
Draw
24%
Best 3.86
Away Win · AST
28%
Best 4.33
Value pick
Away Win
@ 4.16
Fair odds
3.64
book 4.16 · +14.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 27% · EV +14.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (49%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 48.7%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 27.5%
Odds 4.16
Show model details
Implied probability 24%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 23.8%
Odds 3.98
Show model details
Implied probability 25.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 46.9%
Odds 2.26
Show model details
Implied probability 44.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 53.2%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 31.4%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 68.6%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 23.4%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 6.8%
Odds 14.90
Show model details
Implied probability 6.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 93.2%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 76.6%
Odds 1.23
Show model details
Implied probability 81.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds 2.31
Show model details
Implied probability 43.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 54.7%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 27.5%
Odds 3.13
Show model details
Implied probability 32%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 48.7%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 51.3%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 72.5%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
CHE – AST @ 4.16
+14.2%
Edge
Forecast →